Weekly Comments

2025 Season

Sunday Dec 14 2025  14:08 EST

Week 15 Available for entry of picks

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 14:08 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  61    This represents 94% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 14:08 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  61    This represents 94.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 15 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 14 Final

Pool record for week 14

This week: 137 - 178         Best Bets: 30 - 33

Percentage: .438              Best Bet Percentage: .492

Season:  2153 - 2325           Best Bets: 420 - 466

Percentage: .481             Best Bet Percentage: .474

Recap: The pool was under .500 on overall picks, on best bets and is also below .500 on those categories cumulatively for the entire season. In the standings, we had some changes at the top of the pool. MajikMan7 and Wolfmen came into the weekend tied for first with 48 points. MajikMan7 had a rough week and and got only 1 point, finishing with 49. Wolfmen got 4 points and now is alone  in first place with 52 points. BilligG got 5 points and BocciaNick got 4; they are tied for second with 51. Right behind with 50 points are BrillP and NYG. MajikMan7 is next with 49 and JerseyBoys has 48. In the secondary, last-seven-weeks pool, MastroBill remains in first place with 14 points. There are 4 who are 1 point behind with 13: BilligG, JerseyBoys, TeamZwick and Wolfmen

Interesting Results: There was one game that was very frequently picked that had a real influence on the standings this weekend. Specifically, the Monday night game between the Eagles - 3 1/2 and the Chargers had 16 people take the Eagles and 14 take the Chargers. JerseyBoys took the Eagles and if the Eagles had won, JerseyBoys would have gotten a perfect week and would have been in a 3-way tie for first place with Wolfmen and BocciaNick at 51 points. Instead, the Chargers won which kept JerseyBoys away from a perfect week and stuck at 48. Wolfmen had the Chargers and that gave him the extra point to rise to 52 and first place.

Interesting game of the week

From week to week I like to highlight a few games that have some funky or unusual plays, or coach's decisions in them that affect the outcome of the game as it relates to the spreads. These are fun to do and are of course tongue in cheek, since I never suspect malign intent, fixing of the games or that coaches or players actually even care about the point spreads. They just care about winning the game on the scoreboard, not in Vegas. However, after watching the conclusion of  the Broncos-Raiders game yesterday, I have to admit that perhaps my attitude was hopelessly naive - I may have to reevaluate. Let's look at the facts, without prejudice. AFC leading Broncos (-7 1/2) are playing the 2-11 Raiders (who are from Las Vegas in case you weren't aware). Broncos score a TD in Q3 to go ahead 21-7. Raiders try to answer, move the ball to the Broncos 5 early in the 4th quarter and go for it on 4th down, but fail and turn it over on downs. Broncos then go on a 10 minute drive taking it down to the Raiders 5 where they kick a FG to make it 24-7. Raiders score a TD on the ensuing possession to make the score 24-14, with 2:17 left on the clock. They are  still out of reach of covering the 7 1/2 point spread, so they try an onside kick which fails. Denver recovers on Raider 44. They get one first down and with a 4th and 4 from the Raider 28 they run the ball trying to get the first down. That's a little odd, because a FG there from 45 yards, practically a gimme nowadays, (unless the kicker is on the Giants) would make it a two-score game and impossible for Raiders to win or tie the game. That's the first "unusual" call in the game. Broncos fail to get the first down and Raiders get the ball back  on their 28 with 58 seconds  left. They get a first down and then spike the ball on their own 41 with 17 seconds left to stop the clock. Their QB Pickett  hits a 26 yard pass to the Denver 33 but they have no time outs left and are  rushing down field to get another play off before the final gun sounds. 5 seconds left, they won't get another play off. But wait! With 5 seconds left, Bronco tackler Jones didn't immediately get off the offensive player who made the catch, trying to let the clock keep running. Instead of mercifully letting the clock run out and end the game, the refs call a delay of game penalty which moves the ball 5 yards closer, but most importantly stops the clock.

There are 5 seconds left. No chance for the Raiders to win. Coach Pete Carroll sends his FG unit on the field. They kick a FG to make the final score 24-17 and thereby cover the 7 1/2 point spread. What possible motivation could there be for Carroll to kick a FG there other than covering the point spread? The  game will surely end after the kick. There will be no chance to get the ball back and tie the game. The only possible explanation is that he wanted the Raiders fans, who no doubt bet more heavily on their home team to cover the spread. By the way, the over/under was 40 1/2 points so Pete Carroll took care of that with the FG also. It's all just circumstancial evidence, but there is a little too much going on here to pass it off with naivete. (1) why didn't Broncos kick a FG from deep in Raider territory to end the game (2) why did refs call ridiculous penalty instead of letting the game end (3) Why on God's earth did Raiders kick a FG at the final buzzer that affects absolutely nothing but which gamblers win. You decide.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 23:51 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  63    This represents 97% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 23:50 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  63    This represents 97.0% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday morning  at 11:57 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  51    This represents 78.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 14 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 13 Final

Pool record for week 13

This week: 146 - 164         Best Bets: 31 - 31

Percentage: .476              Best Bet Percentage: .525

Season:  2016 - 2149           Best Bets: 390 - 435

Percentage: .484             Best Bet Percentage: .473

Recap:We had one perfect week this week - congratulations to ZuckerEric who now has 39 points and is at the edge of true contention. In the overall pool, best bets did better than overall picks, though we weren't exactly sparkling on best bets, going exactly .500 and .476 on overalll picks. There was interesting movement at the top of the pool. MajikMan7 who was in first place with 46 points coming into week 13 got only 2 points this week and now has 48. Wolfmen continued his surge of recent weeks, got 4 points and now is tied with MajikMan7 at the top of the pool with 48 points. Previous winner BocciaNick got 5 points and is tied for third with 2 others with 47 points. Reviewing: Tied for first place are MajikMan7 and Wolfmen with 48. Tied for third with 47 points are BocciaNick, BrillP and NYG. Right behind them, currently out of the money, but only trailing by 1 point with 46 are BigD and BilligG.In the secondary last-seven-weeks pool, MastroBill leads with 11 points. Two are tied for second with 10 points: TeamThau and TeamZwick. Prizes are awarded only to the outright winner of the secondary pool. In the main pool, first, second and third get a prize.

This week saw some very interesting distribution of picks in our pool. The Lions were favored by 2 1/2 at home against the Packers. Usually the handicappers who set the point spreads award 3 points in the spread to the home team, just for being at home. Lions favored by only 2 1/2 meant that this game was at best even, maybe even giving a slight nod to the visiting Packers. Lions, IMO, did not look great in beating the Giants last week - needing a last second long  FG to tie the game, at home,  against a 2-9 (now 2-10... make that 2-11) team to win in OT. Packers, by contrast, handled an admittedly weak Vikings team 23-6 last week. Perhaps the Lions, by virtue of the fact that they won the NFC North last year are thought of as the class of the division, even though they are in 3rd place in the division this year, behind the Packers and the surprising Bears. Of course, the point spreads are there to influence the same amount of money placed on each team, not to actually predict the outcome of the game. So the "mood" or "feeling" of the fans towards the teams has a big impact on the spreads. Despite all the apparent arguments against the Lions, our pool members took the Lions 22 times while only 4 took the Packers.  Packers won outright.

Another interesting game  involved another NFC North team - Da' Bears. Bears were on the road facing the NFC East leadiing Eagles; Philly was giving 7 1/2. Our pool accurately predicted that the Eagles may be headed for a swoon and that the Bears are on the rise. Despite being underdogs, our pool picked the Bears 10 times and only 3 of our members picked the Eagles. Bears won straightup. Actually, it's a fairly clear and logical decision. The Lions ALMOST lost to the 2-10 Giants, but the Eagles ACTUALLY lost to the Giants earlier this year.

The final interesting picking pattern is the Monday night game between the 2-10 Giants and the 10-2 Patriots. Giants have officially been eliminated from the playoffs and as it stands now, the Patriots are the number 1 seed in the AFC and are 2 full games ahead of the Bills in the AFC East, a team that was many experts preseason favorite to go the Super Bowl. Patriots at home, favored by 7 1/2, Giants are lettiing go of a coach every week, like it's a season of Survivor (which coach is going to get voted off the island this week?) And yet, despite all that, with getting only 7 1/2 points, we had 16 of our members take the Giants and only 7 take the Patriots. Go figure. Patriots won big and Giants were never in the game. BTW - I was one of the geniuses who picked the Giants

By the way, I love calling the people in our pool "members"…. It's all about marketing - American Express started it, calling their card holders members. It makes you feel like you belong to something.important.  It sounds so much better to me than something else I could call the participants.... perhaps, oh, I don't know,  say…. degenerate gamblers…. Don't you think?

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:19 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  62    This represents 95% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:18 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  62    This represents 95.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 13 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 12 Final

Pool record for week 12

This week: 151 - 159         Best Bets: 22 - 40

Percentage: .492              Best Bet Percentage: .373

Season:  1870 - 1988           Best Bets: 359 - 407

Percentage: .485             Best Bet Percentage: .469

Recap: Mediocre scores by the pool this week, with best bets doing really poorly - much  more poorly than overall picks as you can see from the stats above. In our pool, we had one player get a perfect week - congratulations to MastroBill who used the perfect week to move into contention with 40 points. In the standings, MajikMan7 was leading coming in to week 12 with 43 points. MajikMan7 got 3 points and still  retains the lead with 46 points. Nipping at his heels is NYG who followed up last week's perfect week with a 4-spot this week and now has taken over second place with 45 points. BigD who had been tied for second with NYG last week at 41 got only 1 point and dropped in the standings with those 42 points. Also moving up is Wolfmen who got 5 this week,same as last week  and now is all alone in 3rd place with 44.

Seondary Pool: This being week 12, it is the first week of the "last-seven-weeks pool". Obviously MastroBill is leading with 8 points from his perfect week. Interestingly, we had eight guys with 5 points this week, each gertting their Best-Bet but missing on only one other pick. Of those eight  unlucky teams that had 5 points, four of them missed a perfect week by only 1/2 point. JerseyBoys missed on the Chiefs, JMac missed on the Ravens and both matzcake and SeattleSlew missed on the Steelers.

Vegas continues to amaze with how accurately they set the spreads for these games. This week, there were four games that they seemed to hit on the head. Ravens were favored by 13 1/2 over the Jets and won by 13. Chiefs were favored by 3 1/2 over the Colts and won by 3. Bears were favored by 2 1/2 over the Steelers and won by 3 and finally, the Jaguars were favored by 3 1/2 over the Cardinals and won by 3. These close games really had an impact on our pool, as you saw from the close calls reported above.

What a crazy week of games, with some unexplainable coaching moves that affected the Vegas outcomes. First lets look at the Jets + 13 1/2 v. Ravens. Jets are down 20-10 late in Q4, getting the cover comfortably with that 13 1/2 point gift that the Ravens are giving them. They have the ball with 3:11 left in the game, pinned back on their own 5 yard line because of a killer 67 yard punt by Ravens punter (named Stout). The Jets get one first down out to their 15 then lose some yardage and have a 4th and 14 at their 11 with only 1:47 left on the clock. The sensible thing to do here is punt, hope that the Ravens will be content to kill the final minute or so and go home with the cover for your team and the Jets betting public. But noooo - Aaron Glenn has to show that he is macho and wants to instill a winning culture into his team. (Really? We're talking Jets here !!) So he goes for it on 4th and 14 and of course the Jets fail to make it. That's the first inexplicable move by the coach, because it puts the Ravens on the doorstep with plenty of time to knock it into the endzone for a TD which would take the cover away from the Jets. Now Harbaugh is in position to take this very generous gift given to him by Glenn, put the ball in the endzone and cover the 13 1/2 point spread. Harbaugh inexplicably goes soft, safely kills the clock and  kicks a FG. This  means that the Jets have to score two TDs to win, so it is of some  marginal benefit to his team, but it fails to cover the 13 1/2 point spread. Ridiculous coaching. And Harbaugh is a fomer Super Bowl winning coach. He's supposed to have some brains! Yikes.

Speaking of former Super Bowl winning coaches, how do you explain Andy Reid and his Chiefs. Chiefs are giving 3 1/2 and are down 11 in Q4 to the surprising Daniel Jones led Colts. Chiefs go on a 5-minute drive, score a TD and 2 point conversion to cut the lead to 3. Then after an exchange of punts, they go on a 4-minute drive that ends with a game tying FG from the 25 with 3 seconds left. They had the ball on the 7 yard line and could have tried to score a TD which would have given them the win and the cover, but they played it safe and took it to OT. Chiefs stopped the Colts on their first (and only)  posession of OT and then went on another long drive, moving the ball from their own 10 to the Colts 11. Here's where Andy Reid's decision making becomes very questionable. Chiefs have 1st and 10 at the Colts 11. They run a safe dive off left guard for 2 and have a 2nd and 8 from the 9 yard line. Let me repeat.... the 9-f-ing yard line!!. Instead of letting Mahomes,  the greatest QB that ever played, try to score a TD and get the cover, he kicks a FG on 2nd down. Chiefs win on the scoreboard but lose where it counts - in  Vegas. What was Reid thinking? At least give Mahome one or two shots to score a TD?!? Sheesh!

Interesting results this weekend, with the underdogs dominating the scores. In the sixteen games played this weekend, the underdogs won straightup in seven of them and covered the spread with the points they were getting in three other games.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 23:10 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  62    This represents 95% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday morning  at 11:54 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  51    This represents 78.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 12 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 11 Final

Pool record for week 11

This week: 173 - 147         Best Bets: 33 - 31

Percentage: .542              Best Bet Percentage: .524

Season:  1719 - 1832           Best Bets: 337 - 370

Percentage: .484             Best Bet Percentage: .477

Recap: The pool did well this week as you can see above, though once again somehow curiously did slightly better on overall picks than best bets.. Congratulations to NYG and BilligG who each had perfect weeks in week 11. These perfect weeks had a significant impact on the standings. The perfect week by NYG gave him 41 points. Because the two leaders, Majikman7 and BigD got only 2 points each this week, they ended with 43 and 41 points respectively, still in first and second.  But now, NYG is tied for second with those 41 points. BilligG used his perfect week to move into serious contention, with 38 points, only 5 behind the leader. Some overall Trends: Wolfmen (that's me) is on a bit of a hot streak. Following week 6, Wolfmen had only 16 points and was wallowing in 53rd place. Since then, Wolfmen has gotten 2 perfect scores and has accumulated 26 points in the last five weeks. Do the math - an average of  2.17 points in the first six weeks and an average of 5.2 points over the following five weeks, including one week  in those last five which was a stinker, getting only 1 point in week eight. This should be a reinforcement of the lesson I frequently promote:  the NFL season is a marathon not a sprint. Don't give up. Don't ever give up. (Thanks to JimmyV for that last quote) In other trends, it seems that the pool overall is doing a little more poorly than in previous years. The winner in previous years usually averaged around 4.5 points per week. This year, through 11 weeks, Majikman7 leads with 43 points, which is an average of 3.9 points per week.

Games of the week

This week, Vegas showed their remarkable ability to set the spreads of the games accurately. On Thursday night, Patriots were favored by 13 1/2 and won by 13. On Sunday in Barcelona, the Dolphins were favored by 3 1/2 and won by 3; Giants were getting 7 1/2 and lost by 7; Ravens were favored by 8 1/2 and won by 7. In our pool, Dracary had 4 correct picks and missed only on the Dolphins. HouseSchreibatheon had 4 right and missed only on the Packers; Wolfmen also missed only on the Dolphins. In summary, these three missed a perfect week by 1/2 point. Honorable mention goes to Doral who missed only on the Ravens, which means he missed a perfect week by 1 1/2 points.

Giants + 7 1/2 v. Packers. Interesting game, with Jaxson Dart out and Jameis Winston takng over from Russel Wiolson as starting QB. Giants were ahead by 1 in Q4  and as is their customary practice, gave up a late TD to Green Bay and a 2 point conversion to trail 27-20, which was the final score. The interesting thing in this game was that there were 7 TDs scored in total  - 3 by the Giants and 4 by the Packers. Of those 7 TDs, there were 3 missed extra points - 2 by the Packers and 1 by the Giants. Obviously, with a game that ended with Giants getting the cover by only 1/2 point, those missed extra points could have had an affect.

Commanders + 3 1/2 v. Dolphins This game shows why Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat. Game was not exactly inspiring, with Q4 ending in a tie at 13-13. Commanders had a chance to win it but missed a FG from 59 yards out with 15 ticks left on the clock in regulation. Commanders got the ball first in OT and on the first play, Marcus Mariota threw an INT, picked by Jones of Dolphins. Here's where McDaniel showed he is not serious coaching material. Dolphins had the ball at the opponents 33 after the INT, got a first down to advance the ball to the 23, and another first down to the Washington 11. Instead of at least trying for a TD from the 11, with at least 3 more downs to play with,  idiot HC McDaniel kicked the FG on first down. A TD there covers the 3 /12 Dolphins were giving, a FG does not. Good coaches win, great coaches cover the spread. In my opinion, this is grounds for immediate dismissal.

Seahawks + 3 1/2 v. Rams Sam Darnold, the born again QB for Seahawks must have had a flashback to his time with Jets. He tried hard to hand the game to the Rams and threw 4 picks. The Seattle defense had his back and held the Rams to 21 points despite Darnold's generosity. Darnold's performance didn't hurt his team, because even though they lost on the scoreboard, they won where it really counts, in the Sportbooks. Seahawks lost by 2 and were getting 3 1/2.

Latest Update:  As of  Monday afternoon  at 14:28 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  64    This represents 98% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday morning  at 09:25 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  44    This represents 68% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday morning  at 09:25 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  44    This represents 68.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 11 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 10 Final

Pool record for week 10

This week: 167 - 153         Best Bets: 27 - 37

Percentage: .524              Best Bet Percentage: .429

Season:  1546 - 1686           Best Bets: 304 - 340

Percentage: .478             Best Bet Percentage: .472

Recap: This happens more than it should…. The pool scored higher on overall picks than it did on best bets. Doesn't seem logical, does it?  We work hard to pick that one game that we feel is safest, our very best bet. We review experts picks from various web sites, review the injury lists, the weather reports, the inactive list and settle in on that one perfect pick that we are sure will come in. The other picks, we kind of grab any old 4 games and yet end up getting a higer score on those than our one  best bet. Yesterday, as you can see in the stats above, we hit .524 on overall picks and .429 on best bets. Standings: Congratulations to SteveFeldman and Wolfmen who each got perfect weeks yesterday, capped off by the MNF win by the Eagles. This put them in hailing distance of competition with 34 points each. In the overall standings, Majikman7 got 5 points yesterday and took the lead with 41 points.  In second place is BigD with 39 points. CDavid is in third with 37 points. Right behind are BocciaNick and BrillP who are tied with 36.

Games of the Week

Texans + 1 1/2 v. jaguars I didn't really understand this point spread; I don't love the Jaguars and they were on the road, giving points. Jaguars took a big lead and were up 20-10 at halftime. They extended their lead and were ahead 29-10 heading into the 4th quarter. Then the Texans played the part of the Denver Broncos and the Jaguars played the role of NYG. Texans scored a TD with 12:15 left and hit the 2 point conversion to make it 29-18. They got the ball back and scored again to make it 29-24, missing the 2 point attempt this time. They got the ball back again and scored a go ahead TD with 31 seconds left to make it 30-29 in their favor. To ice the game, they recovered a Trevor Lawrence fumble and ran it back for a scoop and score, making the final score 36-29. They scored 26 points in Q4. Crazy. Weird score coincidence:  Seattle over Arizona and Detroit over Commanders by identical 44-22 scores. It's not unusual for games to end in similar scores, but 44-22 ???

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:08 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  64    This represents 98% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:07 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  64    This represents 98.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 10 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 9 Final

Pool record for week 9

This week: 139 - 186         Best Bets: 26 - 39

Percentage: .428              Best Bet Percentage: .400

Season:  1379 - 1534           Best Bets: 277 - 304

Percentage: .473             Best Bet Percentage: .477

Recap: Another poor week of picking by the pool this week, no doubt in part because the favorites went 5-9 and the pool picked 202 favorites compared to 123 underdogs. The four most frequently picked teams were the Cowboys, Colts, Broncos and Patriots. Three of those teams  failed to cover, only the Broncos winning against the spread. On those four game alone, the pool went 26-76

Standings: BigD got 5 points, missing only on the Jaguars and moved from third into a tie for first place. BigD has 36 points, tied with MajikMan7 followed by CDavid with 34 points. Trailing closely behind are three who are tied with 32 points: AaronA, BocciaNick and DachsJosh. Best pick of the week has to be MANthenewguy who was the only one to pick the Cardinals in Monday night football, versus 28 who picked the homestanding favored Cowboys. Cardinals won outright 27-17.

Games of the Week:

Wow. Talk about unpredicatble games and surprise upsets, week 9 had a bunch of them. Everyone says the NFL is a week-to-week league. A team can look great one week and fall off the cliff the next. Prime example of this might be the Green Bay Packers. They were a playoff team last year, a team that all the experts predicted would go to the playoffs again and make some noise when they got there. Then they traded for defensive star Micah Parsons from Jerry Jones and the 'Boys. This only raised  their prospects and expectations, from mere playoff contender to Super Bowl contender. In the past few weeks, they handled playoff teams like the Lions and the Commanders, got beaten by the Browns, then whacked the Steelers in week 8, another playoff team. This week they were at home, favored by 13 1/2 over the Panthers, a team they should have crushed. They turned the ball over twice, had a bunch of penalties, were sloppy in the red zone and lost out right to the Panthers.

Speaking of the Steelers, who were embarassed last week by the aforementioned Packers,  they knocked off the high flying Daniel Jones led Colts in week 9. Were Daniel Jones and the Colts a mirage in their 7-1 start and this is the real Jones / Colts? Or can we write this off as one bad game. Jones threw for 340 yards, but had 3 INTs and lost 2 fumbles. On the one hand, Jones is leading the NFL in passing yards. On the other hand, all but 2 of the 7 Colt wins came against teams with winning records. The schedule for the Colts gets a little harder over the last 9 weeks of the season. They play Kansas City, Houston (twice), Seattle  and the 49ers. I guess we'll see.

Vikings are not a bad team, but not considered in the class of the Lions, as evidenced by the 9 1/2 points Vikings were getting yesterday on the road in Detroit. JJ McCarthy, essentially a rookie after missing his true rookie year due to injury (does that make him a redshirt rookie?) played really well and the Vikings beat the Lions straight up in Detroit.

Craziest game of the weekend had to be Bears-Bengals. Final score was 47-42 Bears, covering the 3 1/2 points that the Bengals were getting. The 4th quarter was back and forth with 31 points being scored. Bears were up 31-27 heading into Q4. They scored a TD and a FG to stretch the lead to an apparently very comfortable 41-27. Then Flacco and the Bengals got busy. They scored a TD and 2 point conversion  to close to 41-35 with 1:43 left. They recovered the onside kick on their own 43. They then scored a TD and PAT with 54 seconds left to go ahead 42-41. Bears were not done; their rising QB Caleb Williams hit a 58 yard TD pass with 17 seconds left to put his team ahead 47-42 (2 point conversion failed). Flacco's desperation heave was intercepted with 4 seconds left to finally end the game. Congratulations to the Bears for scoring that TD that won the game. The WR could have fallen down and given himself up on the 1 yard line, Bears could have killed the clock and won with a FG at the final gun. Had they done this, they would have won by only 2 and not covered the 3 1/2 they were giving. Good job Bears !

Patriots - 6 1/2 beat the Falcons 24-23 after Falcons missed a PAT with 4:40 left in the game that would have tied it up. (Is that kicker the guy who used to kick for NYG?) But Patriots played very conservative for the rest of the game, did not try to score a TD to get the cover and were happy with the win on the scoreboard, not in the sportsbooks.

Finally, the Broncos won again with 11 points in the 4th quarter, after  trailing 15-7 at the end of the third quarter. They seem to have a lot of those improbable, unexpected 4th quarter wins and I give credit for  that squarely on the shoulders of the coach, Sean Payton, who is a  really great coach, tutored in part by my favorite coach of all time, Bill Parcells.

Speaking of coaches, coming off the Parcells coaching tree: Bellichick, Coughlin, Payton, Jim Fassel, Romeo Crennel as well as some lesser regarded coaches that nevertheless rose to be HC in the NFL. Impressive list, lots of wins, Super Bowl wins and Super Bowl  appearances from the coaches on that list.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 20:52 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  65    This represents 100% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 20:52 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  65    This represents 100.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 9 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 8 Final

Pool record for week 8

This week: 143 - 177         Best Bets: 20 - 44

Percentage: .448              Best Bet Percentage: .317

Season:  1240 - 1348           Best Bets: 251 - 265

Percentage: .479             Best Bet Percentage: .486

Recap: Statistics is an interesting field of study. Allow me to explain how statistical measures do not stay on a simple solid path, but have an ebb and flow to them. The simplest example to demonstrate my assertion is probably to use baseball. Suppose a hitter carries a .300 batting average for his career. You can do the math - .300 is 3 hits out of 10 at bats. Of course, no hitter is so consistent so that  out of every 10 at-bat sample he will have gotten exactly 3 hits. Suppose he gets red hot, happens to be seeing the ball well and over the course of a two week period, happens to bat against a lot of weak pitchers, just coincidentally. His batting stats over that 2 week period might be 20-for-50, or .400 batting average. He is still a .300 hitter for his career,  and at some other interval during the season, his statistics would be below .300 so that in summary, his overall average would converge to .300. This is what statisticans call "regressing to the mean". I bring this up, because the pool this week did some serious regression. Last week we hit an impressive .603 on overall picks and a red hot .738 on best bets. But our record for the entire season is .around .480 overall and  .485 on best bets, so this week we started to correct for the high numbers last week as you can see in the stats above. The pool got .448 on overall picks and a really lame .317 on best bets this week.

We had 40 of our members pick the underdog bears against the Ravens - 6 1/2 and 23 of those were best bets. Ravens won big. We also had 25 take the 49ers who lost big to the Texans.

Standings: Despite the weak scores, we did have two perfect weeks. Congratulations to CDavid and BrillP for their perfect weeks. This kept BrillP in the hunt - he now has 26 points. CDavid used his perfect week to jump into the lead. At the top of the leader board, we have  CDavid and MajikMan7 tied with 33 points. BigD and BocciaNick are next, tied with 31 and DachsJosh is right behind with 30.

Surprising games of the week: Jets + 1 1/2 at home scored a late TD to beat the Bengals 39-38. Watch out for the home dogs. Dolphins at home against the Falcons, home team getting 7 1/2, but the Falcons were missing their starting QB and the Fins won big 34-10. Watch out for the home dogs.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 14:33 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  64    This represents 98% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 14:32 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  64    This represents 98.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 8 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 7 Final

Pool record for week 7

This week: 196 - 129         Best Bets: 48 - 17

Percentage: .603              Best Bet Percentage: .738

Season:  1097 - 1172           Best Bets: 231 - 222

Percentage: .483             Best Bet Percentage: .510

Recap: Talk about a big turnaround - check out the results from this weekend compared to previous two. In week 5 and week 6 the pool was underwater, especially week 5 when we were below .400 winning percentage. This week the pool hit over .600 on overall picks and a really impressive .738 on best bets. The most frequently picked teams were Giants (27 picks), Patriots (21)  and Eagles (20); all three teams covered, though the Giants needed the points to get the cover. The pool picked 175 favorites compared to 150 underdogs and the favorites went 10-5. Not surprising, with that impressive record, we had several members that got perfect weeks. The perfect weeks were achieved by: DachsJosh, Konovitch, KretBros, LippmanSam and Wolfmen.

Standings: BigD maintains first place with 30 points. In second is MajikMan7 with 29, and DachsJosh, using his perfect week to jump in the standings is third with 28. Right behind is BocciaNick with 27 and three others are tied with 26.

Impressive Resume of the NYG Coaching and Management Team: Where do we begin? There's so much to say and so little time. Parcells used to say that the most important thing a HC has to do is hire a staff. Daboll fired 6 of the coaches that he had previously hired. You would think that the experience of coaching for three years would lead him to be able to recognize and  select top coaches.The new DC he has hired, Shane Bowen who replaced Wink Martindale has not exactly lit it up with his schemes and play calls. Last year, his first, Giants had the worst defense in the NFL. This year, the Giants loaded up the defense with FAs and draft capital. The defense is a little  better, but not where it should be, and the coach is not elevating it.  The Giants have lost two games this year where the offense scored a go-ahead TD with around 30 seconds left in the game. In both games, Bowen left his best defensive players on the sideline, rushed only 3, kept 8 DBs on the field and played a very soft zone to prevent giving up a TD by getting beat deep. This is perhaps not the smartest strategy when a FG ties or wins the game and  kickers are kicking 60 and 65 yard FGs every week all over the league. One of the losses was to the Cowboys who have the consensus best kicker in the NFL and the other game was in Denver (mile high, where the air pressure is lower and everyone can kick 60 yard FGs).  Not a great strategy. Get beat by it once, but maybe be aware of it a second time?  Speaking of kickers, with all these amazing kickers floating around the league, the Giants have a guy who missed three PATs in two weeks. Two of them were in the one point loss to the Broncos. The Giants kicker is Jude McAtamney who took over from Graham Gano, an aging kicker who has gotten injured each of the last three years and has a very high salary cap number for a kicker. Inexcusable that they came into the season with Gano and doubly inexcusable that they have a kicker who couldn't hold on to the kicking job at Rutgers and was replaced in college. Yikes. Not good.

Of course the most important thing coaches and GMs do is evaluate talent and decide who to keep and who to let go. Xavier McKinney was let go and is probably the best S in the NFL. Saquon Barkley is the best RB I have ever seen, led the league in rushing with 2,000+ rushing yards and was the prime engine to give the Eagles the title. Giants have had OL problems for years (though they seem to be on the road to fixing it now) but many of the OL-men they let go over the last several years are sticking on other NFL teams and are very solid contributors. Their biggest indictment, however has to be the Daniel Jones saga. Daboll, the great QB whisperer, apparently whispered into the wrong ear of DJ. He played poorly for Giants and was benched embarrassingly midseason, released in the middle of the year at his own request, after being demoted to 3rd string.  Some QBs start their careers off  poorly, then learn their craft over several years, studying with different coaches, observing other effective QBs and finally are able to harness their God given talent after all this study and experimenting.  I'm thinking now of two current examples - Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield who after many years of study are blossoming and playing really well, maybe even at MVP levels. Even Geno Smith had several good years at QB after many years of wallowing in poor play. Well, it didn't take Jones long - one off-season and he is playing absolutely great for the 6-1 Colts. He will probably get some MVP votes this year and surely land a big contract in the offseason. When Daboll is organizing his chops and creating a resume for his induction into the NFL HOF, he might want to leave Jones   off of his "QB whisperer" list.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:03 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  65    This represents 100% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:02 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  65    This represents 100.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 7 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 6 Final

Pool record for week 6

This week: 144 - 181         Best Bets: 26 - 39

Percentage: .443              Best Bet Percentage: .400

Season:  901 - 1043           Best Bets: 183 - 205

Percentage: .463             Best Bet Percentage: .472

Recap: The pool record was slightly better than last week, but still underwater, below 50% on both overall picks and best bets. It's always mildly amusing when we do worse on our best bets than the overall picks, which has been the case last two weeks. The pool picked 218 favorites compared to 107 underdogs and the favorites had a 6-9 record this week. The two most frequently picked teams this week were the Bills and the Colts, picked 29 and 28 times respectively. Both failed to cover, Bills lost outright to the surprising Falcons and the Daniel-Jones-Colts won by only 4, failing to cover the 7 1/2 they were giving. One more interesting observation from this week's games: of the 9 underdogs that won this week, 5 won straight up and 4 lost the game on the scoreboard but won in Vegas with the points they were getting. Jets lost 13-11 but were getting 7 1/2; Dolphins lost 29-27 but were getting 4 1/2; Cardinals lost 31-27 and were getting 7 1/2; and finally the Bengals lost 27-18 but were getting 14 1/2. You don't usually see this many games decided purely by the points in one weekend.

Standings: Congratulations to BocciaNick who got a perfect week and therefore surged all the way back from 7th coming in to week6 into a tie for second place. BigD leads with 26, tied for second are the previously mentioned BocciaNick and AaronA who each have 25. Right behind with 24 is MajikMan7.

Interesting Games Week 6

bears +4 1/2 v. COMMANDERS Crazy back and forth game - Bears lead 13-0, but Commanders come back and lead 24-16 early in Q4. Bears score a TD and miss the attempted 2 point conversion which would have tied the game, so they trail 24-22. After exchange of punts, Commanders have the ball at their own 39 with 6:02 left. Commanders get one first down trying to kill the clock, and they have a 3rd and 1 at the Bears 44. Fumbled snap from center gives the Bears the ball back with 3:10 left, and they move down the field carefully, kicking the winning FG with no time left on the clock. Biggest Score Flips: It's always interesting to see how incredibly close the final point differential is to the actual spread that Veagas predicted. For  one particular  example this week, the Dolphns were getting 4 1/2 and they lost by 2, which means that Vegas came withing 2 1/2 points of predicting the final score difference. But this week there were also some huge misses by Vegas. Specifically, the Giants were getting  7 1/2 against the visiting Eagles, who have beaten the Giants around 73 times in a row. But this time, the Giants won by 17, which means Vegas was off by 24 1/2 ponts. Similarly, the Falcons were getting 4 1/2 against the visitng Bills and they won by 10, so Vegas missed by 14 1/2 points. Did I tell you to watch out for the home-dogs?

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:41 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  65    This represents 100% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:40 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  65    This represents 100.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 6 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 5 Final

Pool record for week 5

This week: 128 - 197         Best Bets: 25 - 40

Percentage: .394              Best Bet Percentage: .385

Season:  757 - 862           Best Bets: 157 - 166

Percentage: .468             Best Bet Percentage: .486

Recap: Very weak perfromance by the pool this week, going below .400 on both overall picks and best bets. Often the performance of the pool tracks with how well favorites did in covering the spread. Like much of the betting public, we seem to trend toward picking favorites. That seems to be the case this week as the pool picked 199 favorites and 126 underdogs; the favorites went 6-8 ATS. The worst picks for the pool were the Eagles and the Giants. We had 30 of the 65 teams pick the Eagles, 13 as best bets and 25 pick the Giants, though only 2 as BB. I kind of understand picking the Eagles - they are defending champs, riding high at 4-0 and were at home giving only 3 1/2  to the Broncos. But the Giants ?? I am a big Giants fan as you know, but having won just one game with their new rookie QB doesn't seem like enough of a track record  to pick NYG. I can only write it off to irrational exuberance (apologies to Alan Greenspan) from Giants fans who have experienced so much crappy football over the last decadde, and now are hoping beyond reason to be optimistic on the basis of just a glimmer of good football from Dart.

Standings: Bad luck for BigD who had a chance at two consecutive perfect weeks if the Chiefs had covered. Unfortunately for him, Jags won straight up on MNF, didn't even need the points they were getting. Have I mentioned that you need to watch out for those home underdogs? Despite missing the perfecto, BigD remains in first place with 23 points. AaronA is next with 21 and tied for third place are three with 19 points: DachsJosh, GabeDavidoff and MajikMan7. BTW - DachsJosh and MajikMan7 are both rookies to the pool this year.

Interesting games of the week Broncos + 3 1/2 v. Eagles Eagles leading by an apparently comfortable score of 17-3 in Q4, easily covering the 3 1/2 they are giving to Denver. But Broncos are driving and score a TD early in the quarter to make it 17-10. Eagles go 3-and-out and the Broncos make the most of it and score a TD with 7:30 left in the quarter. Here's where it gets interesting - instead of kicking a PAT to tie the game, Sean Payton goes for 2 and makes it. Here's why it was a brilliant move by Payton: even if he misses it, his team gets the cover with the spread. But if he makes it, he's in great shape. Our pool had the Broncos getting 3 1/2 but many Sportsbooks had them getting only 2 1/2. So if the Eagles kick a FG to go back ahead by 2 points, Bronocs still win with those 2 1/2 points. The football gods rewarded Payton handsomely, because his team kicked a FG and they won the game outright when their defense held Philly.

Panthers +1 1/2 v. Dolphins. Dolphins leading 17-0 late in Q2 and cruising to a win on the scoreboard and in Vegas. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, the game has two halves. They crumble, giving up 20 unanswered points to Carolina culminating with a TD with 6:10 left in Q4. Dolphins wake up and score a TD with 4:42 left to go up 24-20. But Panthers are not done; they score again right before the 2:00 minute warning to take the lead 27-24. They hold Miami to a 3-and-out forcing a punt and kill the clock for the win. Watch out for them home-dogs.

Patriots + 7 1/2 v. Bills Huge upset! Previously undefeated Bills at home against a division rival, favored by 7 1/2 lose outright to the visiting Pats. Vrabel is a great coach. Too bad Giants didn't grab him.

Daniel Jones watch: I guess coaching matters. Jones is performing now as one of the top QBs in the league. I'm not claiming he is, just that his numbers are really strong. He has won more games this year in the first 5 that he has started for the Colts than he had in 16 starts for the Giants covering the last two years. Sunday: 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 212 yds, 69% completion percentage and perhaps the best stat for a QB, yards per attempt of 7.3, a very good number. I may have mentioned that I am a big NYG fan and his ascendancy immediately after being cut by the Giants continues to convict the Giants coaching staff as thoroughly incompetent.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:09 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  65    This represents 100% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:08 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  65    This represents 100.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 5 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 4 Final

Pool record for week 4

This week: 156 - 169         Best Bets: 35 - 30

Percentage: .480              Best Bet Percentage: .538

Season:  629 - 665           Best Bets: 132 - 126

Percentage: .486             Best Bet Percentage: .512

Recap: The pool was below .500 on overall picks but did better on best bets, posting a winning record. The record on best bets was only slightly over .500, so if you were gambling this way in Vegas for a living, you would lose money because of the vig they take. In the pool, congratulations ot BrilP and BigD  who each got perfect weeks. In the standings,  BigD is in first place with 18 points. Tied with 17 right behind are AaronA, DachsJosh and GabeDavidoff. One point behind them with 16 are Dracary and  MajikMan7. Interesting games Fascinating game with Packers and Cowboys. Except for a tying FG with 1 second left in overtime that made the final score 40-40, the Cowboys would have had their second overtime win of the year, both with scores 40-37. Of course, Packers hit FG with :01 left on the clock to make it 40-40. Cowboys were getting 6 1/2, so they covered. Giants were getting 6 1/2 at home against the undefeated Chargers. Giants held on for the win both in Vegas and on the scoreboard. As I always say, watch out for the homedogs. Speaking of homedogs, how about the Steelers who won outright, getting 2 1/2 at home against the favored Vikings

Strategy for picking: Serious gamblers always look at the pont spreads to decide whether they should take a favorite or underdog. Not surprising - that's the intent of the point spreads. But it is interesting how rarely the point spreads actually decide who the winner is. In other words, how often does a team lose the game but win in the Sportsbooks with the points they are getting. For example, this week only the Bills - Saints game was affected by the point spread. Bills won by 12 but were giving 15 1/2 to the Saints. Therefore Bills won on the scoreboard but Saints won in Vegas.  In all other games this weekend, if the favorite won, they won by enough to cover the spread and if the underdog covered, they also won the game outright. Should that affect your strategy in making picks in our pool? You decide.

Latest Update:  As of  Monday morning  at 00:26 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  65    This represents 100% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday morning  at 10:52 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  53    This represents 82% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday morning  at 10:50 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  53    This represents 82.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 4 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 3 Final

Pool record for week 3

This week: 148 - 172         Best Bets: 25 - 39

Percentage: .464              Best Bet Percentage: .397

Season:  473 - 496           Best Bets: 97 - 96

Percentage: .488             Best Bet Percentage: .503

Recap: Poor week of picking by the pool, going below .500 on overall picks and way below .500 on the best bets. It's always interesting to track the distribution of picks. Our pool picked 210 favorites compared to 110 underdogs and the favorites went 9-7 against the spread. But it's more about who we pick and how evenly distributed our picks are across all the games. This week, the favorites that tripped up our pool were the Cowboys ( - 1/2) and Packers (-7 1/2). We had 30 take the Cowboys and 20 take the Packers, both lost straight up, the underdogs didn't even need the points. In the underdog category, we had 18 take the Texans (+1 1/2) and they did not cover. On the winning side, we had 27 take the Chargers and  25 take the red hot Colts, both favorites that covered comfortably. If you're interested in these statistics, check out the Tendencies tab from the main menu or from the menu on the Standings and Statistics page. Standings Review: Tied for first with 13 points are: DachsJosh and HenryA. Tied for second with 12 are: AaronA, Dracarys, GabeDavidoff, KretBros and MajikMan7. Congratulations to Dracarys who scored a perfect week and used that to surge into a second place tie. Four others are right behind with 11. Remember: it's a marathon, not a sprint. If you're behind, don't give up.

Interesting games of the week cardinals + 1 1/2  v. 49ERS Homestanding 9ers, favored by a measly  1 1/2 v.  the visiting Cardinals, were struggling because of the many injuries they're suffering, particularly to their starting QB Purdy. Cardinals score a TD with 8:37 in Q4 to tie the game at 13. 49ers move the ball to opponent's 36, at the edge of FG range. Instead of being conservative to kick a FG and get the cover, the QB goes rogue and throws a pick. The 9er defense forces a 3-and-out and they get the ball back deep in their own territory with about 3:30 left, plenty of time to move down the field and get a FG. However they're called for holding in the endzone which gives the Cardinals a safety and a 2 point lead. This safety should change the strategy for the coach, but alas it doesn't. He should be looking to move down the field and score a TD to get the cover. His team moves the ball smartly down the field and they reach the Cardinals 16 yard line with 7 seconds left. That's plenty of time to try one heave to the endzone to get a TD and the cover. Instead the coach wusses out, tells his QB to kneal down once, and they kick a short 35 yard FG to win the game by 1 point on the scoreboard, but not where it counts - in Vegas, where they were giving 1 1/2

BROWNS + 7 1/2 v. packers     Low scoring game, but visiting Packers leading 10-0  deep into Q4, in good position to get the win and the cover with the 7 1/2 they were giving. Oops. Browns kick a FG with 3:45 left in the game and now they are in position to win in Vegas. To the credit of the GB coach, he recognizes that they need to score again to cover the spread and instructs his QB to be aggressive instead of passively running the clock. It doesn't work out because Jordan Love is picked off and Browns are set up on GB 4 from which they score a TD to tie the game. Heres where karma catches up to Packers - they move the ball to the Cleveland 22 with 1:12 left. Plenty of time to score a TD and go for 2 point conversion to win by 8 and cover the spread. They play conservative, run the clock down and attempt a FG which will win the game only on the scoreboard. The karma? Kick is blocked and Browns move in position to kick a winning FG on the final play of the game. Watch out for the home dogs.

Biggest surprises of the week Falcons - 5 1/2 over the homestanding Panthers, get torched by Carolina 30-0. 2nd year QB Penix had a poor game for Falcons. The moral of the story: watch out for the home-dogs! Vikings - 3 1/2 v visiting Bengals - a curious game with both teams missing their starting QBs. Wentz came off the street to start for Vikings for the injured McCarthy and Jake Browning starting for Joe Burrow. Vikings won big, 48-10 getting 2 defensive TDs and forcing 5 turnovers Bears + 1/2 v. visiting Cowboys - Bears win big 31-14 over favored Cowgirls. It may have only been 1/2 point spread, but watch out for them homedogs!

Daniel Jones watch: As a Giants fan, I was always interested in his progress. He always had the physical skills but apparently made poor decisions and/or didn't make decisions  quickly enough in the pocket. He had one good season for the Giants and won a road playoff game but was unceremoniously shown the door towards the end of 2024 season. It's only been 3 games, but he's playing great for the Colts and his team is 3-0. His performance so far (granted only 3 games) is yet another failing grade on the resume of the Giants coaching staff.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:53 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  64    This represents 98% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:52 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  64    This represents 98.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 3 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 2 Final

Pool record for week 2

This week: 178 - 147         Best Bets: 44 - 21

Percentage: .548              Best Bet Percentage: .677

Season:  325 - 325           Best Bets: 72 - 58

Percentage: .500             Best Bet Percentage: .554

Weekly Recap: A much better performance by the pool this week compared to week one, as you can see from the results above. The pool hit at a .548 winning percentage on the overall picks and a very impressive .677 on best bets. For the season we are exactly .500 overall and .554 on best bets. Just as in week 1, favorites went only 9-7 in the sportsbooks, but the pool picked the right winners this time. Of course, this is how Vegas likes it - they want an even amount of money on both teams in any game so it doesn't matter who wins; they collect their vig. Congratulations to newcomer MajikMan who had a perfect week in week two. On the strength of that perfect week, he surged into a tie for first place. Tied at the top of the pool with 10 points are: MajikMan, Esabes and another rookie CDavid who had  5 points in each of  these first two weeks of the season.  Esabes had a perfect week in week 1, only 2 points in week 2. Right behind, tied with 9 points each are DachsJosh (another rookie), GabeDavidoff and KretBros

Worst Picks of the Week Often I highlight the best picks of the week. This happens when the whole pool leans heavily one way to an "obvious" pick, usually a favorite that has a presumed slam dunk victory; while one or two people pick against the mob and are rewarded with the cover. (Don't you love it when we mix in metaphors to other sports …. i.e. slam dunk). This week I'm highlighting the worst, not the best picks of the week. I won't embarrass them by calling them out, just describe the situation. Bears had a solid week 1 game, losing by only 3. They did not cover the spread, but displayed some talent and some hope for their fans. No doubt based on that presentable performance combined with the Lions losing their opener, the Lions were giving only 5 1/2 points to Da' Bears. In our pool we had 24 picking the favored Lions and only 3 taking the underdog Bears. Well - turns out the 5 1/2 didn't help much; Bears lost by 31. Nice try by the 3 who picked the Bears.

Interesting games of the week COLTS +2 1/2 v. broncos Colts were trailing by 2 and got the ball back with about 3:10 left in the game. For their closing drive, the strategy and patience displayed by the Colts coach, Shane Steichen was brilliant and worthy of some praise and analysis. There was plenty of time left in the game to advance the ball and win the game. However, many coaches would hurry , throw the ball downfield and try to score quickly, on the flawed theory that if you fail to put a winning drive together, your defense can stop the opposing offense and then you will still have time for another drive to win the game. This coach evaluated things differently. Colts were already getting the cover, trailing by 2 and getting 2 1/2. His strategy then was to advance the ball slowly, run down the clock and if he can't kick a winning FG, who cares, because they already have the win where it counts - in Vegas. True to that strategy, Colts ran 8 plays, 7 of them running plays with only one pass. They ran the clock down to :03 seconds and tried the FG from 60. It missed but Colts got lucky with a penalty against the Broncos that gave them another try from 15 yards closer, which the kicker made for the win. But - who cares who wins on the scoreboard. The key is that: make or miss - the Colts get the cover because of the brilliant strategy by the coach.

Speaking of the Colts - Daniel Jones had another strong game. Colts have not yet punted on offense this year. They did give the ball up once when they tried for 4th down and missed, but Daniel Jones looks like a different player. It's only two games, but Giants coaching staff has to be considered somewhat suspect. (I'm being sarcastic - they suck)

panthers - 6 1/2 v. CARDINALS Cardinals seemed to have things under control leading 27-3 after scoring a TD with 9:23 left in Q3. But Panthers come back, scoring three straight TDs, the last one with 1:58 left in Q4 to make the score 27-22 and give them the dreaded backdoor cover with the 6 1/2 points they were getting.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 19:05 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  65    This represents 100% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 19:04 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  64    This represents 98.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 2 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 1 Final

Pool record for week 1

This week: 147 - 178         Best Bets: 28 - 37

Percentage: .452              Best Bet Percentage: .431

Season:  147 - 178           Best Bets: 28 - 37

Percentage: .452             Best Bet Percentage: .431

Week 1 Recap: The season got off to a real bang, with lots of close games and quite a few upsets in many of the games. Favorites won only 9 of the games, underdogs covered the remaining 7. The best pick of the week was surely by rookie, pool newcomer MaxS. We had 11 in our pool pick the favored Eagles in the season opener over the Cowboys and only one, MaxS, pick the underdog Cowboys. Eagles won on the scoreboard but Cowboys won where it really counts - in the sportsbooks in Vegas with the 7 1/2 they were getting so generously from the hometwon Iggles. Great job by MaxS; welcome to the pool

As you can see from the scores above, the pool had a poor record in week 1, going below .500 in both overall picks and best bets. However, we had one superstar in week 1 with Esabes getting a perfect week, putting him in first place with 8 points. Tied for second place are three who missed a perfect week by only 1 guess and had 5 points. They are:  CDavid, GabeDavidoff and KretBros. CDavid is a rookie, first time in the pool, so congratulations to him for a great opening week.

Interesting Games of the week

BILLS -1.5 v ravens

Exciting game, whether you’re putting down some shekels on the game or whether you’re interested in who actually wins the game (Like why????) This was exciting. Looked like the Ravens had the game and the cover in the bag when bruising RB Derrick Henry ran for a 46 yard TD to put the visiting Ravens up 40-25 early in Q4. Then Josh Allen got hot, scored 2 TDs, one after a fumble by Henry, and managed a FG drive to win the game at the final gun.

Here’s the interesting strategy parts of that 4th quarter made more significant because it was a 1 point game with a 1.5 point spread. On the Henry TD, Ravens missed the extra point which opened the door ever so slightly for Buffalo. When Bills scored their Q4 TDs, they went for 2 pt conversion twice - once on their TD before Ravens’ Henry scored and on one of their TDs after that score. Both attempts failed. So there were points left out on the field that could have changed which team beat the spread. But perhaps the most interesting decision came at the end. Bills were down 2, in part because of the points they gave away. When they moved the ball to around the Ravens 15 yard line, in position for a FG, why not go for the TD ? You have a red hot QB, who is the reigning NFL MVP. You’re telling me he can’t put the ball in the end zone from there? If he does Bills get the cover. Instead coach takes the loser’s way out, kicks a FG to win on the scoreboard by 1 but lose in the only place it counts, in the sportsbook,  by “the hook”.

COLTS -1.5 v dolphins

Homestanding Indy giving only 1.5 makes them a theoretical underdog because the home team gives 3 points just showing up. Not only that but Colts are starting Daniel Jones, NYG castoff, who was literally run out of town by the fans, the coach and management. Well guess what - it turns out that competent OL play, good offensive coaching and coherent play calling can make a difference. For one Sunday it turned Jones into a solid NFL QB. If he has a good year and the Giants show little improvement, there can be no reason at all to justify keeping Daboll as NYG coach.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 20:37 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  65    This represents 93% of the pool

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 20:10 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  64    This represents 90.0% of the pool

Latest Update:  The website has been updated with picks received so far

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday morning  at 06:36 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  44    This represents 63.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 1 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Season Preparation

NOTE: The Thursday night season opener is INCLUDED in week 1 picking

Opener: The spreads have been loaded on the website as a trial for now. We will reload the point spreads the week before the regular season begins, as they may change slightly. You may begin entering your picks; but please monitor if the spreads change. As always, you may resubmit other picks if you wish before the games begin.

Opening remarks: We are waiting to see  who's in and who's out for the 2025 season.  All members are listed in the drop down menu under the Enter Weekly Picks menu choice. Please read the introductory email for instructions. When you enter a PIN/PASSWORD for your first entry, I will save it in my system and you will use that PWD to verify each submission during the course of the season.

Remember: all submissions are time stamped, so we can verify that they have been submitted in time.

Remember also: if you made an error on a pick, or just changed your mind on one of your picks, you can submit a new set of picks again. In fact, you can submit as many entries as you'd like and the last one submitted will be used. All five teams must be filled out on each submitted entry. Of course, you have to submit picks before 1PM Sunday or before the start of the Thursday game if you are picking a team in TNF.

After you click submit, the system automatically sends a copy of your picks back to you at the email address that you provide on the form. But it takes a few minutes for that to happen, it is not instantaneous, so please be patient and don't reclick submit 10 or 15 times. (Nothing bad will happen if you do, but it is a little annoying on my end to make sure that the correct picks were used.) Also note that your picks will be sent to the email address you enter on the form. Occasionally someone makes an error typing in the email address and the return email containing the picks gets lost.

Let the Games BEGIN !!