Weekly Comments

2026 Season

Thursday Oct 22 2026  23:34 EST

Week 7 Available for entry of picks

Latest Update:  As of  Thursday night  at 23:34 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  12    This represents 23.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 7 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 6 Final

Pool record for week 6

This week: 128 - 132         Best Bets: 27 - 25

Percentage: .492              Best Bet Percentage: .519

Season:  778 - 770           Best Bets: 162 - 146

Percentage: .503             Best Bet Percentage: .526

Week Six Recap: Mediocre scores for the pool this week as you can see above, but there were some very interesting picking patterns and some unusual results in the league. Generally our pool leans heavily towards picking favorites, but this week we went with the underdogs. If you inspect the Tendencies tab on the Standings and Statistics page you will notice that we picked 99 favorites compared to 161 underdogs in week six. This apparently was a good idea because the favorites went only 5-9 in the weekend's games.  The most frequently picked underdogs were the BROWNS (home dogs at + 6 1/2) who were taken 32 times vs only 4 for their opponents, the ravens. The second popular underdog was the Panthers getting only 1/2 point against the homestanding eagles. No doubt both of these teams were taken so often because their opponents were missing their starting QBs. The actual line shifts throughout the week in Vegas as money coming in influences an adjustment to thes the spread or injuries are announced that could influence the outcome. However, our spread stays locked in to the one we issue on Wednesday (sometimes Thursday) ,it doesn't change. Smart pool members will check the actual Vegas line with our Sablewolf pool line to see  if some opportunities exist. Some might call this gambling arbitrage.

Standings Update: Congratulations to DachsJosh, GoldbergJesse and GabeDavidoff for hitting a perfect week. DachsJosh and GoldbergJesse are now within hailing distance of the leaders. HenryA is now tied for first place with MaxS, who both have 29 points. MaxS had 5 points this week, missing only on the Falcons for a perfect week, while HenryA had 3 points. In third place is NYG with 27. Right behind tied with 24 are matzcake and SeatlleSlew64.

Interesting games and results

I mentioned above that the favorites went only 5-9 this week. Of those 9 underdogs that covered, 6 won outright and the other 3 needed the help of the point spread to cover. The Jets were getting 7 1/2 and lost by 7 to their bitter rivals, the Patriots; the Raiders were getting 5 1/2 and lost by 3 to the Bills; finally, on Monday night, the Commanders were getting 8 1/2 and lost by 7 to the homestanding 49ers. Speaking of underdogs, how about them Titans. They finally won a game and in so doing apparently managed to get the  losing team, the Indy Colts to fire their GM. He has made some really awful blunders and mind-numbingly dumb personnel moves. To mention just a few: signing Daniel Jones as QB to a big contract and giving a boatload of picks to the Jets for  a very overrated,often injured and unmotivated CB Sauce Gardner. But building a roster that could be close the the salary cap and could lose to the worst team in the NFL was apparently too much for the Titans owner to take.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 21:17 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  52    This represents 100.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 6 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 5 Final

Pool record for week 5

This week: 142 - 118         Best Bets: 32 - 20

Percentage: .546              Best Bet Percentage: .615

Season:  650 - 638           Best Bets: 135 - 121

Percentage: .505             Best Bet Percentage: .527

Week 5 Recap: As you see above, the pool had a very nice comeback this week from recent mediocre-to-poor performances. The pool hit .546 on overall picks and .615 on best bets, quite a strong result. This performance elevated the pool to .505 on overall picks season-long performance and an even stronger .527 on best bets. This strong result was pushed forward in great measure by five perfect weeks. Congratulations to BigD, BuckeyeJ, SydSar, AlexJosh and MastroBill on their perfectos. The Lions covered and they added the most to pool averages - 15 picked Lions while only 4 picked their opponent, Cardinals. Packers v. Bears was an interesting game in our pool. Packers were picked 18 times and their opponent Da' Bears were taken 14 times. Bears were favored by 3 1/2 and Packers crushed them, winning outright

Standings recap: HenryA got 3 points this week and extended his lead from 1 to 2 points over second place MaxS. HenryA has 26 points and MaxS has 24. NYG is trailing by 1 with 23 points and is all alone in third place. Right behind is ClappJ with 22.  On strength of their perfect weeks, BigD, BuckeyeJ, and SydSar moved into serious contention. Tied with 20 points, right behind the leaders are five teams: BigD, BuckeyeJ, matzcake, SeattleSlew64 and SydSar

Interesting Games of the Week

Before I get into the games for week 5, I have to take a look back at one game from week 4 that I neglected to comment on. There was a very interesting ending to week 4 Chiefs v. Raiders game. Raiders were getting 4 1/2 and trailed the Chiefs 30-19 after Chiefs scored a TD and PAT with 3:02 left in the game. Raiders refused to die and scored a TD with 1:54 left to make the score 30-25. Now here's the interesting part - if they kick the (almost certain) PAT, they are down by 4 and cover with the 4 1/2 they are getting. But they go for 2 to make it a 3 point game and give them a chance to to tie on the scoreboard as well as win in the Sportsbooks. They made the 2 point conversion making the score 30-27. They even got the ball back, but their attempt at a  game-tying drive ended in INT. If they had missed the lower probability 2 point conversion, Chiefs would have gotten the cover.. But they made it so Raiders covered with the points.

Three games with similar  in week 5

Everyone is making a fuss over the ending to the Giants v Commanders, the Jaguars v. Eagles and the Rams v. Bills. I don't get what the big deal is. In Giants game, I'll agree that if you care about who wins the game instead of who covers the spread, the clock management of Commanders HC Quinn was mind-numbingly stupid. They ran the next to last play of the game in OT with 55 seconds left. They took their time and ran the next play with 12 seconds left. Inexplicably, instead of throwing a pass to the endzone or to the sideline, or spiking the ball to stop the clock, the QB ran, was tackled and couldn't run another play because the clock expired. However, the best he could've done was kick a FG giving them a 3 point win, when they were giving the Giants 3 1/2.So, I mean.... like who really cares??? A smilar result in the Eagles game. Eagles were down by 16-14 in Q4 after Jaguars scored with 3:20 left (and missed the PAT). Eagles offense had looked weak all day but got their act together, moved down the field and kicked a FG with :08 seconds left to go up 17-16. It's inconsequential becuse they were getting 7 1/2, so make or miss that FG, they still get the cover. They kicked off after the FG and allowed a big return to Jaguars who then kicked a FG with 1 second left to win the game 19-17. Once again, this last FG and the whole FG exchange at the end of the game was completely inconsequential because with those 7 1/2 they were getting, the Eagles were guaranteed to get the cover in any event.

In Rams v. Bills, the game went into OT tied at 34 after the Rams scored a tying TD and PAT with 5 seconds left in Q4. This gave them a chance to cover the 3 1/2 they were giving to the visiting Bills if they score a TD in OT. Bills were getting 3 1/2, so if either team wins by a FG, the Bills get the cover. The Rams had a 4th and 5 at the Bills 30 with 4:16 left in OT.  They should have tried to convert the 4th down  and go for the TD to add 6 points and cover the point spread. Instead, they attempted a FG which was blocked (karma for not respecting the Vegas Gods?). Anyway, Bills take the ball, move downfield and kick a FG that wins the game. Once again, the make or miss FGs at the end of the game for the Rams or the Bills were meaningless, because whether Rams make/miss it or Bills make/miss, Billls would get the cover.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:06 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  52    This represents 100.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 5 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 4 Final

Pool record for week 4

This week: 121 - 129         Best Bets: 22 - 28

Percentage: .488              Best Bet Percentage: .458

Season:  508 - 520           Best Bets: 103 - 101

Percentage: .494             Best Bet Percentage: .505

Week 4 Recap: The pool was slightly under water this week as you can see from the statistics above.   Overall, for the entire season, the pool is exactly at .500 on best bets and slightly below .500 on general picks. Congratulations to HenryA who got a perfect week and has surged into the lead with 23 points. In second place is last week's leader, MaxS who is 1 point behind with 22. In third place is NYG with 20 points. ClappJ is 1 point behind, in fourth place with 19 points.

Interesting games of the week

Miami +10 1/2  v. Minnesota: Vikings kicked a short FG with 6:43 left in Q4 to cap a drive that consumed 8:30 on the clock and 60 yards. That put them up 15-10, still needing some more points to cover the 10 1/2 they were giving to Miami. The Dolphins go 3 and out and punt, giving Minnesota the ball back with 5:41 left in the game. Vikes go on an impressive ball control drive, forcing Miami to drain all of their timeouts and eating up the clock. They move it all the way downfield and have a 1st and goal from the Miami 2 with 2:00 left in the game. Miami is out of timeouts and Vikings QB Kyler Murray kneels down a few times to end the game. What stupidity - they easily could have punched it into the endzone, gotten a TD and a win both on the scoreboard as well as in Vegas.

Vegas really knows how to set the spreads

Seahawks were giving 7 1/2 to the Chargers and they won by 7. Packers were giving 3 1/2 to the Buccaneers and they won by 3. In those games, as you can see, the underdog covered with the 'hook' they were getting. In a game that the favorite  covered, the Rams were giving 3 1/2 to the Eagles and they won by 4. There was an interesting decision in that game. Eagles were up 20-10 in Q4 and had a 4th and goal from the 4 yard line. Their offense was awful all day and their best player and best red zone / short yardage runner, former Giant Saquon Barkley was out injured. They clearly should have kicked a FG to pad their lead to 13. Instead, they went for it, missed and turned the ball over on downs. Rams came back and scored two TDs to win by 24-20. Of course if the Eagles had taken the FG, the final score would have been 24-23 and Eagles would have gotten the cover.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 22:43 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  50    This represents 96.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 4 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 3 Final

Pool record for week 3

This week: 105 - 155         Best Bets: 17 - 35

Percentage: .404              Best Bet Percentage: .327

Season:  387 - 393           Best Bets: 81 - 75

Percentage: .496             Best Bet Percentage: .519

Weekly Recap: Another down week for the pool as you can see from the stats above. In week one we had hit 64.5% of our picks and 78.4% of our best bets. After week 3, we are cumulatively now slightly below .500 on our overall picks for the season and a shade over .500 on best bets. Two big misses for the week had a big affect on our overall scores. Seahawks were favored by 7 1/2 over the Commmanders and lost outright. We had 19 of our members pick the Seahawks and only 1 took the Commanders. Browns were getting 2 1/2 points against the Panthers and they didn't need the points; Browns won straight up. We had 22 picking the Panthers and only 3 pick the Browns.  (BTW - congratulations to AaronA for picking the Commanders)

Standings Recap: Congratulations to DylanRoth for getting a perfect week. He now has 13 points and is right at the edge of contention. At the top of the pool, MaxS is in first place with 17 points, Zwildes is in second place with 16 points. Right behind are three that are tied with 15 points: ClappJ, HenryA and NYG

Interesting games of the week:

Giants -2 1/2 v Titans: Giants former coach, Brian Daboll is now OC for the Titans under HC Saleh who was the coach of the Jets last year. Daboll and Saleh made several correct calls managing the game, if all you know is analytics, but none worked out.  You also need to have a feel for the game, which they don't. Down 12-0 in 4th qtr with a 4th and goal at the 5 yard line, they decided to go for it instead of taking the chippy FG. They failed and turned the ball over on downs. Later they scored a TD and then on their next possession moved down with 1st and goal. If they had taken the points the first time, a FG now would have won the game. But down 12-7, they had to go for the TD and Cam Ward got picked off. Of course, if Saleh had kicked a FG there, down 12-7, he would have lost the game on the scoreboard but won in Vegas, which is all we care about.

Cowboys + 3 1/2 v. Ravens

Insane ending to this game. Cowboys were down 3 and moved the ball 60 yards down to the Ravens 5 in only 1:23 and kicked a tying FG with only 10 seconds left, leaving the Ravens with the ball with only 7 seconds left. Cowboys kicking team messed up by knocking the kickoff into the endzone which brought the ball out to the 35 and more importantly, didn't let any time tick off the clock. Lamar Jackson hit a 27 yard pass play down to the Cowboys 38 yard line and managed to stop the clock with 1 second left. Ravens kicked a 56 yard FG to win the game. Of course, they probably should have let the clock run out, let the game go into OT and try to score a TD so they had a chance to cover the 3.5 they were giving. A pyrrhic victory - on the scoreboard but not in the sportsbooks

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday night  at 21:42 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  52    This represents 98.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 3 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 2 Final

Pool record for week 2

This week: 115 - 145         Best Bets: 24 - 28

Percentage: .442              Best Bet Percentage: .462

Season:  282 - 238           Best Bets: 64 - 40

Percentage: .542             Best Bet Percentage: .615

Weekly Recap: Talk about a turnaround…. They say you should never overreact to week one results in the NFL. That's true for the NFL games themselves and by extension for our pool. In week one, the pool was well over .500, in fact nearly 65% on all picks and nearly 80% on best bets. In week two, the pool was underwater, below 50% on both. Mathematicians and statisticians would probably call it regressing to the mean.  The sports analogy might be: hitting to the numbers on the back of your baseball card. But it wasn't only the pool that had interesting reversals. Look at the turnarounds for some of the NFL teams. Browns looked awful week one and have what most analysts consider a terrible QB situation - they didn't just cover, they won outright against Bucs in Tampa. In our pool 23 picked the Bucs and 0 took the Browns. Bears scored 59 points week one and only 3 in their home loss  on Sunday. Fans may point out that the Bears are still averaging 31 points per game, but statistics nerds will point out that they have a rather high standard deviation. Ravens looked like world beaters in week one and got beaten at home by the surprising Saints in week two. Finally, my Giants looked like potential contenders against the Cowboys in week one but got rocked when they played the varsity Monday night. Standings update: Congratulations to MaxS, NYG and ClappJ who got perfect weeks in week 2 and stand at the top of the pool. MaxS and NYG are now tied for first with 13 points. ClappJ has 12 points and is tied for second with HenryA and ZWildes who also have 12 points. HenryA and ZWildes followed up their perfect week in week one with 4. Right behind with 11 points are Doral and TeamZwick.

Interesting games of the week: Jets + 3 1/2 v packers: I thought the Packers HC, Matt LaFleur was some kind coaching prodigy. His brother Mike LaFleur is also a coach in the NFL, HC of AZ Cardinals, so I guess it's genetic. But he sure didn't show too much smarts in the game against the J-E-T-S, Jets,Jets, Jets yesterday. Let me explain: Jets were winning by 10 in 4th quarter but the Packers came back and tied the game forcing overtime. Jets HC Glenn didn't exactly distinguish himself with his clock management and game management decisions either. Jets won the OT coin toss and Glenn elected to receive the ball first. That makes no sense, because the OT rules guarantee that you're going to get a possession and seeing what your opponent does with their first possession gives you an advantage to decide how to manage your possession. Jets went 3-and-out on their possession (QB Geno Smith was sacked twice) and after a punt, the Packers moved easily down the field, helped by a personal foul against the Jets and had a first and goal at the Jets 8. On first down the pseudo-genius coach LaFleur kicked a FG. WHY ???? The point spread was 3 1/2. A FG does them no good, they still don't cover. And they moved down the field so easily in OT, that they surely could have scored a TD and gotten the cover. Or at least tried! Perhaps you want to kick a FG on 3rd down in case of a bad snap or hold.... fine. But on first down? They won on the scoreboard but not in Vegas, which is the only thing people care about.

Latest Update:  As of  Sunday afternoon  at 13:18 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  52    This represents 98.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 2 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Week 1 Final

Pool record for week 1

This week: 167 - 93         Best Bets: 40 - 12

Percentage: .642              Best Bet Percentage: .769

Season:  167 - 93           Best Bets: 40 - 12

Percentage: .642             Best Bet Percentage: .769

Week 1 Final Update:

Amazing start by the pool this week. Just look at the statistics from week 1 above and you'll see that the pool got an impressive .642 of their picks correct and a sizzling .769 of the best bets correct. The pool, as it typically does, leaned heavily towards taking favorites: 152 favs and 108 dogs. Furthermore, the favorites and underdogs split, with favs and dogs each winning 8 games. But the reason the pool had such high scores is the particular teams that they took. Specifically, the Steelers were taken 33 times, Bears were taken 21 times, Bills were taken 19 times and the Jets were taken 15 times. These were the most frequently teams picked and they all covered.

Standings: Not surprisingly with these impressive scores, we had six guys that got a perfect score and consequently are tied for the lead with 8 points. The pool members that hit a perfect week were: AlexanderNeuhaus, Doral, HenryA, TeamZwick, ZBigApple, ZWildes. We also had thirteen guys that got their best bet right and missed a perfect week by one pick, therefore finished with 5 points and are tied for second place

Interesting Games of week 1

VIKINGS + 1.5 v. packers: Homestanding Vikings were getting 1.5 points which means that they were really 5 point underdogs, since Vegas gives 3.5 points to the hometeam automatically. Packers were winning 22-10 after scoring early in Q3. On their next possession, they made a questionable call going for it on 4th and 1 instead of kicking a FG which would have expanded their lead. They failed to get it and then the Packers went on a roll, scoring the last 29 points of the game and won outright 39-22 Cardinals + 10.5 v. Chargers Chargers are a popular preseason pick to make the playoffs and maybe goto the Super Bowl. Conversely, Cardinals don't have a legit QB and were thought to be in tank/rebuild mode. So what happens? Chargers fall apart and Cardinals win outright by a big score, 26-14

Latest Update:  As of  Monday afternoon  at 15:02 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published:  52    This represents 100% of the pool

Latest Update:  It looks like we've had a few members drop out - 14 to be exact. We have 52 players this season

Latest Update:  As of  Monday afternoon  at 12:46 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted  is:  60    This represents 91.0% of the pool

Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 1 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering  your picks

Season Preparation

We are a little late in season preparation; sorry for the delay. Some personal matters interfered with me doing all the prep work and providing the usual lead time available before week 1. All is good now.... nothing to worry about. Because of my delay in making everything available, I will give a 2 week leeway for making payments. All payments must be in by week 2.

Opener: The spreads have been loaded on the website and you may begin entering your picks

Opening remarks: We are still waiting to see  who's in and who's out for the 2026 season. We have received payments from many members and are expecting more to join.  All members are listed in the drop down menu under the Enter Weekly Picks menu choice. Please read the introductory email for instructions. When you enter a PIN/PASSWORD for your first entry, I will save it in my system and you will use that PWD to verify each submission during the course of the season.

Remember: all submissions are time stamped, so we can verify that they have been submitted in time.

Remember also: if you made an error on a pick, or just changed your mind on one of your picks, you can submit a new set of picks again. In fact, you can submit as many entries as you'd like and the last one submitted will be used. All five teams must be filled out on each submitted entry. Of course, you have to submit picks before 1PM Sunday or before the start of the Thursday game if you are picking a team in TNF.

After you click submit, the system automatically sends a copy of your picks back to you at the email address that you provide on the form. But it takes a few minutes for that to happen, it is not instantaneous, so please be patient and don't reclick submit 10 or 15 times. (Nothing bad will happen if you do, but it is a little annoying on my end to make sure that the correct picks were used.) Also note that your picks will be sent to the email address you enter on the form. Occasionally someone makes an error typing in the email address and the return email containing the picks gets lost.

Let the Games BEGIN !!