| End of Season Recap |
| Tuesday Jan 16 2024 14:23 EST |
| 2023 Season Recap - Insights and Patterns |
| Betting Record Analysis: This year we had 79 participants in the pool. With 18 weeks of football, if every participant had submitted picks every week without forgetting or missing a week, we would have a maximum of 1,442 sets of picks submitted. But we did not have a perfect attendance record, we had 83 potential groups of picks that were not submitted. On the surface, 83 seems like a pretty big number, but it is only 5.8% of the maximum number of picks that could theoretically have been submitted. Furthermore, of these 83 missed submissions, 45 of those came in the last three weeks, weeks 16-18, no doubt from participants who fell too far behind in either the main pool or the secondary pool to win a prize and consequently lost interest. I am working on a different pool prize structure for next year that I hope will keep everyone interested all the way through the season. Stay tuned. |
| Importance of Bonus points: It is interesting to recognize every year how valuable the bonus points are in deciding pool winners. The bonus points awarded for getting your best bet right and getting the additional 2 bonus points for a perfect week contributed strongly to winning prizes. The overall winner of the pool, Wolfmen, had the highest percentage of picks correct and also had strong performance in the bonus points,which explains why he won by such a wide margin. There were a few very interesting twists elsewhere in the pool. RaphaelR, who finished third had the second highest winning percentage. He got 54 correct picks, for an even .600 winning percentage. BocciaNick who finished second, one slot ahead of RapahelR, actually had a lower winning percentage, picking 52 right for a .578 winning percentage. However, BocciaNick got 12 best bets and had 3 perfect weeks for an additional 18 points, while RaphaelR had only 10 bets bets and 2 perfect weeks. Lower down in the standings, BilligG also had 52 correct picks, same as second place BocciaNick, but had only 8 best bets and 2 perfect weeks to add as bonus points. BilligG finished tied for sixth place with 6 other participants in the pool. |
| Betting Patterns: Throughout the season, I often advised that our pool leaned towards picking favorites over underdogs. This should not be a surprise, because the American betting public tends to lean towards favorites also. The other interesting trend in America's betting tendecies is that they tend to favor the popular, well known teams, and the teams that are having a strong year. The interesting thing about this trend is that these tendencies are not just a result of the point spreads, but they actually influence the point spreads. The point spreads are used by Vegas to direct an equal amount of money to be bet on each team. They want to make money on their vig, they don't want to take a position on which team will win a particular game. If an equal amount of money is bet on each team, Vegas walks away with around 10% profit. Because the betting public favors the popular teams, especially when they are good - Cowboys, 49ers, Steelers for example, you can expect the point spreads in their games to be a little higher than they should be, making them considerations to bet against. In our pool, we tilt heavily towards the favorites - we chose 4,080 favorites compared to only 2,614 underdogs. Also in our pool, the most popular teams picked on the season were 49ers picked 312 times, Lions who had a very strong season were picked 298 times. Other teams that were picked frequently were Dolphins, Ravens and Chiefs.Interestingly, the NY Jets were also a popular team to pick in our pool. |
| Do point spreads help? This is a question that everyone should consider when making their picks. In our pool, point spreads made a difference in only 15% of the games. In other words, in the other 85% of the games, the team that covered the spread also won the game. The point spreads were sufficient to make the losing underdog team a winner in only those 15% of the games. Not surprisingly, in games where the point spread was less than 3 points, the influence on the winner was smallest. In games where the point spread was between 3 and 6 points, the influence on the winning team was greatest, where 15.9% of the underdogs lost the game but won with the points. The overall influence of the spreads to level the playing field is really quite remarkable. Overall in our pool, the underdog won 49% of the time split into 34% wining straight up and 15% with the points. The favorites won 51% of the time winning by enough points to cover the spread. |
| Farewell until next season. I hope your favorite team does will in the playoffs. |
| Week 18 Final |
| Pool record for week 18 |
| This week: 179 - 131 Best Bets: 39 - 23 |
| Percentage: .577 Best Bet Percentage: .629 |
| Season: 3446 - 3183 Best Bets: 710 - 563 |
| Percentage: .520 Best Bet Percentage: .558 |
| Final
Recap: An exciting finish to the season - we had a
very strong week of picking to finish the season (I hope that doesn't mess up
everyone's draft position, like the Jets and Giants meaningless week 18 win).
The pool got a winning percentage well over .500 on overall bets and a very
strong .629 winning percentage on best bets. For the entire season, the pool
did a respectable .520 on overall percentage and .558 on best bets. We did have one perfect week - congratulations to BeretzStu for his perfect week. At the top of the pool, Wolfmen got 3 points and ended the season in first place with 78 points, averaging 4 1/3 points per week. Usually the winner gets 4 1/2 points per week. In second place was BocciaNick who had a great comeback the last few weeks. BocciaNick was dominating the pool early, and led the pool in first place for weeks 1 through 9. He had some bad weeks of picking and dropped down to 10th place in week 16. But he finished strong, with a perfect week in week 17 and 4 points in week 18 finishing the season in second place with 70 points. RaphaelR was in 10th place after week 14, with 51 points. But he finished strong getting 17 points in the last 4 weeks to finish in third place with 68 points. TeamZwick and TeamAmsel finished right behind with 66 and 65 points respectively. |
| In the secondary pool, KretBros came out of nowhere finishing with 31 points to win the secondary pool outright. Two points behind in the secondary pool was ChristophR. |
| Interesting games of week 18 |
| There were two interesting upsets this last week of the season. Both NY city area teams that play in Met Life Stadium (which is in NJ) won in an upset this weekend, each breaking a long losing streak against a hated foe. Jets had lost 15 in a row to the Patriots and beat them in Foxboro Stadium. Patriots were favored by 1 1/2. Giants haven't beaten the Eagles since around the year of the flood, were 4 1/2 point underdogs at home and beat them convincingly. But the real interesting game of the weekend was the Seahawks v. Cardinals. Seahawks were favored by 2 1/2 and needed to win to sneak into the playoffs. They were down by a TD and drove 67 yards for a TD with 2:00 minutes left in the game. Seahawks Pete Carroll obliviously went for a 2-point conversion to try to win the game. The 2-point conversion was successful and Seattle led 22-21. Cardinals drove down the field and missed a 50+ yard FG to give the game to the Seahawks. But Seattle was giving 2 1/2 and won by only 1. Carroll should have kicked the 1 point conversion to tie the game and give his team a chance to kick a FG in overtime where they could win by 3 and cover the spread. These coaches will never learn. |
| Stay tuned in the next few days, where I will give a recap of betting patterns for the season. |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday 12:59 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 62 This represents 78.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 18 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 17 Final |
| Pool record for week 17 |
| This week: 149 - 161 Best Bets: 30 - 32 |
| Percentage: .509 Best Bet Percentage: .667 |
| Season: 3267 - 3052 Best Bets: 671 - 540 |
| Percentage: .517 Best Bet Percentage: .554 |
| Recap:
The pool had very pedestrian numbers on overall
percentage as well as on best bets this week. The pool was below .500 on both
and remember - in Vegas the vig is around 10%. You bet $110 to win $100. So,
when our pool goes .500, we would lose money in Vegas, not break even. When
we are below .500 as we were this weekend, we would lose even more money. Of
course, our site does not charge a vig; after we pay expenses for technical
support, every penny collected gets paid into the pool. Standings recap: We had a very interesting weekend - leader Wolfmen maintained his lead with a 5 point week. Wolfmen missed a perfect week by missing on the Bills, who beat the Patriots but did not cover the generous 13 1/2 points they were giving to the Patriots. Wolfmen finished the week with 75 points. BocciaNick was one of 3 teams that got a perfect week this week and that vaulted him into second place with 66 points. In third place is RaphaelR with 64 points. Right behind are 5 teams that are tied with 62 points; they are: BilligG, MestelGabyDan, TeamAmsel, TeamZwick and Zisholtz. |
| The
interesting thing is that Wolfmen enters week 18, the last week of the pool, with first
place clinched. He leads by 9 points and because a perfect week gets 8
points, no one can catch Wolfmen even if he gets 0 next week. This has never happened
before in the history of the pool, we always had competion going into the
final weekend. Aside from BocciaNick, the other two teams that got a perfect week were: DylanRoth and SiegelA. In the secondary pool, since Wolfmen is guaranteed first place in the main pool, he is excluded from wining the secondary pool. Tied for first place in the secondary pool are ChristophR and KretBros, both with 26 points. The tiebreaker is most correct picks, which KretBros leads with 45 correct picks compared to only 40 for ChristophR. I want to additionally point out the following. Usually the winner of the pool averages around 4.5 points per week. This year, Wolfmen is averaging below 4.5 points per week, so his performance is not exceptional. While his score gives him a large lead, comparing his score to other winners in previous years gives you a different perpetive. While Wolfmen is doing well, the reason he is ahead is not because of his superior performance, rather it is because no other team in the pool is performing up to typical winning standards. |
| VegasRocks: It is uncanny how many games Vegas gets exactly right with their point spreads. With the vig explained above, Vegas does not want to take a position on one team over the other. The point spreads are to influence an equal amount of money be wagered on each team in a particular game. That way, Vegas makes money wothout risk. Colts were favored by 3 1/2 over the Raiders and they won by exactly 3. The Chiefs were favored over the Bengals by 7 1/2 and they won by 8. There is no truth to the rumor that Taylor Swift sent a play into Andy Reid from the luxury box she was sitting in down to the sideline. She did write a song called Kadarius Toney Sucks, which she will play at halftime of the next Chiefs home game |
| Interesting Picks: In the Eagles v. Cardinals game, Eagles were favored by 10 1/2 points.We had 14 teams taking the Eagles and 0 people taking the opposing Cardinals. Not only did the Cardinals cover the spread, they won straight up. On a slightly smaller scale, we had 14 take the Bills and and 2 take the Patriots. Patriots did not win but they covered the spread. |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:31 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 61 This represents 77.0% of the pool |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:13 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 60 This represents 76.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 17 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 16 Final |
| Pool record for week 16 |
| This week: 153 - 176 Best Bets: 40 - 17 |
| Percentage: .465 Best Bet Percentage: .702 |
| Season: 3118 - 2908 Best Bets: 641 - 525 |
| Percentage: .517 Best Bet Percentage: .550 |
| Pool
Results: We had a poor week of picking on overall
picks, but did have a very strong record on Best Bets as you can see in the
weekly summary statistics above. Our pool leaned heavily towards picking
favorites, as it frequently does, choosing 230 favorites versus only 110
underdogs. The scorebook had the favorites and underdogs splitting -
favorites covered in 8 of the 16 games. In the standings of the pool, leader Wolfmen bounced back from his 2 point showing of last week and got 5 points this week, missing only on the Packers, which would have given him a perfect week. With his 5 points, Wolfmen has 70 points and extended his lead in the main pool to 9 points.Tied for second place with 61 points are BilligG and Zisholtz. Trailing right behind and still in strong contention are the following who are tied with 60 points: HouseSchreibatheon, Frager, RaphaelR, TeamAmsel and TeamZwick. |
| Congratulations to MestelGabyDan who got a perfect week this week. With the perfect week, MestelGabyDan jumped into contention with 59 points. In the secondary last 7-weeks pool, Wolfmen is still in first place with 25 points, but if Wolfmen wins a prize in the main pool, he will be excluded from the secondary pool. KretBros is next with 22 points, so that team leads that pool if Wolfmen is excluded. Right behind are 4 teams that are tied with 21 points: ChristophR, MestelGabyDan, SableAlex and Zisholtz. |
| While it is in fact very difficult to pick winners, especially with all these late back-door covers, we should mention the following very impressive picks. First, in the Rams-Saints game, nearly everyone in our pool who was interested in that game took the Rams - we had 9 taking the rising Rams and only 1 taking the Saints. Good job by the pool - Rams covered. On the other side of the picking - we had 21 pool players taking the homestanding Broncos - 6 1/2 over the downtrodden Patriots and only 1 wise handicapper picking the underdog Patriots. Not only did the Patriots cover, but they won straight up. Congratulations to TeamAmsel who showed the smarts and the guts to take the Patriots on the road. |
| Recap of some of the crazy games this weekend Subtitle of this section should be - "here's why it's impossible to handicap NFL games with the point spreads". First let's consider the Jets -3 1/2 v. Commanders game. Commanders were trying really hard to give the game to the Jets. In the first quarter on their first possession, Commanders feeble offense didn't even get to a 3-and-out, they threw an INT on the second play which the Jets converted into a FG. On their next possession, Commanders managed a 3-and-out but had their punt blocked, which Jets converted into a TD. Washington punted again after a 3-and-out on their next possession and the Jets scored a TD in 2 plays from 42 yards away. Jets added a FG early in the second quarter and were leading 20-0 and later, were ahead 27-7 at halftime. They looked like they were going to coast to a win and a cover especially because Washington looked so inept on offense. It looked even better when the Jets got an INT deep in Washington territory. They advanced the ball inside the 10 and had a 1st and goal at the 6. But Trevor Siemian (he's the 4th QB used this year by the Jets for a reason) threw an awful red zone INT which was returned 56 yards by Washington LB Barton. Now the Commanders took out their QB of the future, Sam Howell and put in their QB of the present Jacoby Brissett (that's a Christmas Carol Ebineezer Scrooge reference in case you missed it - I guess Taylor Heinicke is the Washington QB of the past) and their offense comes to life, while at the same time the Jets go into panic mode and freeze up. Washington scores 3 TDs on 3 successive possessions led by Brissett and take the lead 28-27 with 4:52 left in the game. After an exchange of punts, the Jets get the ball back with 1:41 left and drive down for the winning FG. Of course, we know how unimportant that is - Jets win by 2 and were giving 3 1/2. So after holding a 20 point halftime lead, Jets fail to cover and nearly lose the game outright. I won't even complain that Jets should have tried for a TD to get the cover and not settle for a FG, because their offense was so weak in the 2nd half, that is all the coach could reasonably expect. Now consider the Lions -3 1/2 v. Vikings. Lions are dominating the game but Vikings are trailing only 17-14 at halftime mostly because of some remarkable playmaking by their all-wolrd receiver, Jefferson. Vikings rally and take the lead early in the second half but Lions score 2 TDs in response and lead 30-21, then 30-24 after a Minnesota FG early in Q4; Lions still in position to get the cover. Vikings get the ball back with 2:23 left in the game and convert a 3rd and 27 with another great catch by Jefferson and continue to move the ball down to the Lions 30. Crowd is roaring and yelling Skoal to get the hometown Vikes pumped up. What looked like a secure Lions cover now looks as if Minnesota will snatch the game away. But Lions intercept the next pass near the goal line and run out the clock for the win and the cover. |
| Finally let's consider the Packers - 4 1/2 v. Panthers. Panthers are acknowledged to be one of the very worst teams in football this year. Packers are beating them pretty comfortably, leading 30-16 after a TD early in Q4. But Panthers show some life and score 2 TDs to tie the game at 30 with 4:05 left in the game, nullifying the cover that the Packers apparently had. But Packers are not done. They move the ball down to the Carolina 14 and kick the winning FG late in Q4. They were of course, close enough from the 14 to go for a TD instead of settling for the FG; the TD would have given their team the win AND the cover, but ever since A-Rod left GB to go to NYJ, the GB coach has gone soft between the ears. |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:15 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 68 This represents 86.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 16 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 15 Final |
| Pool record for week 15 |
| This week: 171 - 182 Best Bets: 34 - 31 |
| Percentage: .484 Best Bet Percentage: .523 |
| Season: 2965 - 2732 Best Bets: 601 - 508 |
| Percentage: .520 Best Bet Percentage: .542 |
| Recap: Below average results from the pool this past weekend, week 15, as you can see above. At the top of the pool, leader Wolfmen got only 2 points this weekend and his lead was trimmed by 1 point. Wolfmen came into the weekend leading by 8 points and now has 65 leading by 7 over BilligG and HouseSchreibatheon who are tied for second with 58 points. Right behind is Frager with 57 points. In the secondary last-seven-weeks pool, Wolfmen leads with 20 points and ChristophR is in second place with 19 points. Right behind are two who are tied wiith 18 points: KretBros and SableAlex. Recall that if you win one of the three prizes in the main pool, you are excluded from the secondary pool. |
| Tendencies
for the week: I always find it interesting to see
how the picks of our pool players are distributed. Last week, in week 14, the
Giants and Jets had rousing victories, led by Tommie Cutlets of the Giants
and Zach Wilson of the Jets, respectively. The heavy New York influence of
our pool no doubt inspired our pool to go strong on the two New York teams,
both of whom were underdogs. In our pool, we had 20 pick the Giants (+6
1/2) compared to only 6 who picked
their opponents, the Saints. We had 17 pick the Jets (+8 1/2) compared to 10
who picked the rival Dolphins. Looking at how lopsided those games ended, it
seems ridiculous in retrospect that so many picked the New York teams. We
also had 24 who picked the Titans while only 3 picked the underdog Texans.
Not only did the Texans get the cover, but they won the game straight up.
Congratulations to the 3 wise men who went against the grain and picked the
Texans: Dracary, Kosowsky and Yeamans. Congratulations to Kosowsky and BigD who each got perfect weeks this week. |
| Interesting games of the weekend: Browns - 3 1/2 v. Bears Bears seem to be dominating the game, turning over journeyman Joe Flacco (another Italian QB) with 3 INTs, leading the homestanding Browns 17-7 heading into the 4th quarter. But Browns catch fire, getting a FG and TD to tie the game with 3:08 left in the game. They stop the Bears next possession and get the ball back on a punt at their own 21 yard line. Flacco hits two big plays to TE Njoku which moves the ball into scoring territory. They have the ball on the Bears 19 with 46 seconds left. That's plenty of time to score a TD to get the win and the cover. But the Browns coach sits on the ball and has the QB kneel down three times to kick a FG to win the game on the scoreboard by 3, when his Browns were gving 3 1/2. Some coaches will never learn. |
| Chiefs - 9 1/2 v. Patriots I really don't get Bellichick - he made several incomprehensible decisions in this game which led directly to his Patriots not covering the very generous point spread he was getting from Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Here's what Bill B did: Patriots were down 27-10 in 4th quarter but score a TD with 8:24 left in the game after an INT of Mahomes gave them a short field at the KC 29. Pats settled for the PAT making the score 27-17. WHY ??? With the Partiots feeble offense, Bellichick should have figured that this was the last time they were going to have a chance to score. He should have gone for a 2 point conversion which would have made the score 27-18 and give him the win with those 9 1/2 points. Later, when the Pats got the ball back for a last gasp with 4:00 left in the game, Bill acually ran the ball twice on first and second downs and only passed on 3rd and 4th down, failing to advance the ball and get even one first down, let alone score a FG. Pitiful offense and bad decision making by the 6 time Super Bowl coach (8 rings, if you count the two he won as DC for NYG under Parcells). He's lost it. |
| Bengals - 3 1/2 v. Vikings Bengals are down 17-3 heading into 4th quarter but storm back with a big comeback and tie the game at 24 to force overtime. Vikings go for a 4th and 1 in the OT at the Bengal 41 with 6:15 left in OT, but Bengals stuff the run and get the ball with good field position. On 3rd and 9, Browning hits a 44 yard pass to position the ball on the Vikings 13. That's plenty of time to score a TD and get the cover, especially with the way the Bengals offense came alive and was rolling at the end of the game. Alas, the coach of the Bengals had the QB kneel down 3 times and kicked the FG to win on the scoreboard, but not in Vegas. Darn. (I had the Bengals as my best bet....Double Darn!) |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:04 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 72 This represents 91.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 15 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 14 Final |
| Pool record for week 14 |
| This week: 183 - 182 Best Bets: 31 - 38 |
| Percentage: .501 Best Bet Percentage: .449 |
| Season: 2794 - 2550 Best Bets: 567 - 477 |
| Percentage: .523 Best Bet Percentage: .543 |
| Recap:
Mediocre results on overall picks where we scored
slightly over .500 and did well below .500 on the Best Bets as you can see
above. We had three perfect weeks this
week - congratulations to the perfectos: AaronA, JesseGoldberg and Wolfmen. This is the second perfect week by Wolfmen in the last 3
weeks and he solidified his lead in the standings. Wolfmen now leads with 63
points. In second place is BilligG with 55. Right behind are HouseSchreibatheon and TeamAmsel tied with 54 points each. BocciaNick, Frager and SeattleSlew trail closely, only 1 point behind tied with 53. In the secondary pool, Wolfmen leads with 18. If you are one of the winners in the main draw, you cannot win the secondary pool, so if Wolfmen win a prize in the main pool, he cannot win the secondary pool. ChristophR and KretBros are next with 15 points in the secondary pool. . |
| Interesting
Results: As is usually the case, our pool leaned
heavily towards picking favorites. If you look at the Tendencies tab on the
Standings and Statistics page, you'll see that we picked 214 favorites vs.
156 underdogs. The favorites went only 4-11 this week, which might have led
to a much worse picking record than the .501 winning percentage that the pool
got this weekend. Here's the other
interesting thing that might explain that
- even though we picked mostly
favorites, one of the underdogs that we picked was picked often.
Specifically, we had 30 people in our pool picking the underdog Bengals
against only 9 who picked the favored colts. On a smaller scale, we had 18
taking the Rams vs 12 who took the favored Ravens. The Bengals won straight
up and the Rams lost the game but got the cover with the 7 1/2 they were
getting. So even though we picked more underdogs, two of those underdogs were
picked heavily and balanced the bet success average. By the way, the Rams-Ravens game was interesting. The Rams were 7 1/2 point underdogs and once the game went into OT, the Rams had it locked up - regardelss of who was going to win the game, the spread could not have been more than 6. |
| Also interesting: It is interesting how many games Las Vegas got so close with their point spreads. Browns were favored by 3 1/2 over the Jaguars and won by 4. Ravens were favored by 7 1/2 over the Rams and won by 6. Vikings were favored by 3 1/2 over the Raiders and won by 3. 49ers were favored by 10 1/2 over the Seahawks and won by 12. |
| A few interesting games from Week 14 |
| Jaguars +3 1/2 v. Browns. Jaguars are behind 31-21 with time running down in Q4. They score a TD with 1:33 left in the game to make the score 31-27. All the handicappers that picked the Jaguars breathe a sigh of relief, because the almost certain PAT kick would make the score 31-28 and give the Jags the cover with the 3 1/2 points they were getting. However, coach Pederson inexplicably goes for a 2 point conversion which fails. Jags have no timeouts left so Browns, after they recover the onside KO run out the clock. Why would Pederson go for 2 there? Go for 1, get the cover and go home. Is there a point shaving scandal brewing in Jacksonville? Thanks to HouseScheibatheon for pointing this game out to me. |
| Chiefs - 2 1/2 v. Bills Talking about point shaving - I wonder if the refs are compromised? Consider this: Chiefs are giving 2 1/2 to the Bills and are trailing by 3 with time running down. Chiefs run a brilliant pass and lateral play with former Giant great and Chiefs Super Bowl hero Kadarius Toney catching the lateral from Travis Kelce Swift and taking it into the end zone. That would give the Chiefs the win and the cover. But the refs called Toney for lining up in the neutral zone. Really???? it was only a little toe! I think the only reason they called it must have been because the linesman had a wager on the Bills and he wanted to collect! |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:39 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 74 This represents 94.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 14 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 13 Final |
| Pool record for week 13 |
| This week: 173 - 198 Best Bets: 35 - 36 |
| Percentage: .466 Best Bet Percentage: .493 |
| Season: 2611 - 2368 Best Bets: 536 - 439 |
| Percentage: .524 Best Bet Percentage: .550 |
| Recap:
Regressing towards the mean is what the
statisticians would say when you compare last week's hot picking to this
week's below average results.The pool was below 50% on both overall picks and
best bets. Interestingly, we had 30 of our pool participants pick the Jets
over the Falcons. Jets were homedogs, getting 3 1/2 against the Falcons; they
lost by 5 and failed to cover. I know the Falcons aren't great, but I don't
quite get what made the Jets such an attractive pick, starting Tim Boyle at
QB. Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder, I guess. The Lions were also
picked 30 times, making them and the Jets the two most popular picks in our
pool this week. The Eagles, Steelers and Broncos were also popular picks -
all taken more than 20 times and all failed to cover. No doubt, this is why
the scores were not good this week. We did have one perfect week this week -
congratulations to ChristophR for nailing the perfect week. ChristophR is pretty far
behind in the main pool, with 39 points, but his perfect week gives him a
strong shot in the secondary pool. (see below) Things got a little tighter at the top of the pool. Wolfmen had a 4 point lead coming into week 13, but got only 2 points this weekend and the lead was cut to 3 points. Wolfmen has 55 points, while BocciaNick and BilligG are tied with 52. Trailing right behind is HouseSchreibatheon with 51 points. In the secondary pool, ChristophR, on the strength of his perfect week and his 5-point near perfect week last week, leads the secondary pool with 13 points. AronoffI and KretBros are 1 point off the lead with 12. |
| Interesting
Games of the Week Seahawks + 8 1/2 v. Cowboys What was coach Mike McCarthy thinking? Now I understand why he was fired by the Green Bay Packers a few years ago, after having won a Super Bowl and being in contention virtually every year. He doesn't understand how point spreads work!!! Here's the situation - Cowboys trailing virtually the entire game, have a strong comeback and score a TD with about 5 minutes left in Q4 to take a 3 point lead. Not good enough - the Cowboys were laying 8 1/2 in our pool (and 9 1/2 in many other sportsbooks). But the game is not over - Seahawks advance the ball on the ensuing kickoff to near midfield. They go for it on 4th down, fail to pick it up and with the favorable field position, Dallas moves down for a FG to take a 6 point lead. Give McCarthy SOME credit, because he did try to go for a TD on 3rd down, a play that didn't work, but at least he showed that he was trying to cover the spread. Dallas leading by 6, Seattle got the ball back for one last try - again advanced the ball near midfield, again went for it on 4th down and again failed. They had no timeouts left and Dallas could just run down the clock, but WHY ??!!?? They easily could have moved down field maybe 10 or 20 yards and kicked a FG that would give them a 9 point lead and the cover. Unfortunately, McCarthy elected to go into victory formation. I think this is what they call a Pyrrhic victory - win on the scoreboard, lose in the sportbooks. |
| Texans
- 3 1/2 v. Broncos Texans were winning but Broncos are coming back. They trail 22-17 and have a chance at a last play deep in Texans territoy. Bronos coach Sean Payton (I thought he was a pretty smart guy) decides to let Russ cook and try to throw an ill advised risky TD pass on the last play of the game that would have won it on the scoreboard for his Broncos. WHY???? Who cares who wins the game on the scoreboard? The low percentage pass was intercepted by the Texans in the endzone sealing the win for the Texans and and the loss in the sportsbooks for the Broncos. A smart coach would have kicked a chippy FG, making the score 22-20 which would have given the Broncos the cover with the 3 1/2 they were getting. In our pool, 21 took the Broncos, including me who had them as a best bet. Darn!!! |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:23 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 75 This represents 95.0% of the pool |
| Interesting Statistics: We have now completed 12 weeks of the 18 week NFL season; in other words 2/3 of the NFL season is now in the books. This is a signigicant enough sample size to draw some inferences on the results of games and the affect of point spreads on the results. We have 180 games completed in those 12 NFL weeks. In those 180 games, in our pool, 94 favorites won the game and covered the point spread. Of course in the other 86 games, the underdog covered. Of those 86 games that underdog won, the underdog won the game straight up in 61 of the 86. That leaves only 25 games where the point spreads actually came into play. In other words - in 25 games, the favorite won the game on the scoreboard but the underdog won in Vegas (and in our pool) with the points they were getting. |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 13 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Reminder: This is the second week of the secondary pool. Even if you're behind in the main pool, you still have a chance to win in the secondary pool. |
| Week 12 Final |
| Pool record for week 12 |
| This week: 224 - 147 Best Bets: 52 - 19 |
| Percentage: .604 Best Bet Percentage: .732 |
| Season: 2438 - 2170 Best Bets: 501 - 403 |
| Percentage: .529 Best Bet Percentage: .554 |
| Recap:
Wow, what a hot week of picking for the pool as you
can see from the sizzling statistics above. The pool got .604 on overall
picks and a really impressive .732 on best bets. With apologies to Quentin
Tarantino and Samuel L. Jackson, I am going to borrow the line SLJ used in the movie Pulp Fiction before
shooting the character named Brett (actor Frank Whaley): "Wow, check out the big brain on Brett". Jules (the
Samuel L Jackson character) compliments Brett as having a big brain because
Brett knew that the McDonalds Quarter Pounder with Cheese could not have the
same name in France, where they use the metric system. Brett knew that in
France it was called a Royale with Cheese. So I repeat in compliment of the
pool's hot week of picking: "Check out
the big brain on the pool". Aside from the very strong statistical showing in the overall pool, we had 6 perfect weeks. That's right.... 6 !!!! I don't recall ever having that many perfect weeks on any one particular weekend. In fact, if the Vikings would have covered in Monday night Football over the Bears, we would have had 8 perfect weeks. Congratulations to the following who got a perfect week: AronoffI, BrillP, KretBros, TeamFeldman, Wolfmen and YeamansBen. All I can say is Wow again. It has been a very impressive few weeks for TeamFeldman who has now gotten a perfect week in 2 of the last 3 weeks. All these perfect weeks had a profound affect on the standings. Last week's leader, Frager, got 0 points this week and is stuck at 46 points. BilligG got 4 points and is all alone in second place with 49 points. BocciaNick and HouseScheibatheon are tied for third with 48 points and Wolfmen, on the strength of his perfect week now is leading with 53 points. Frager, SeattleSlew and TeamAmsel are right behind with 46 points. Several others are right behind with 45. |
| This is the first week of the last-seven-weeks pool. 10% of the pool is set aside to whomever gets the highest score in weeks 12-18. Of course with all those perfect week, all the players who got a perfect week (see above) are tied for first place in this secondary pool. |
| Best
picks of the week: In our pool, we had a bunch of
our pool participants jump on the Lions bandwagon. We had 25 picking the
lions and laying the 7 1/2 points while only 4 were wise enough to take the
underdog Packers. Not only did the Packers cover, they didn't even need the
points they were getting; they won straight up. The participants in our pool
that were sharp enough to pick the packers were: BrillP, GreenbergMatt, MestelGabyDan and mjhza. Nice job! Another example of smart picking in our pool was in the Vikings-Bears game on Monday night. We had 19 participants picking the favored Vikings and only 4 brave souls who took the Bears - Da'Bears won straight up. The 4 who bravely took the Bears were: BilligG, DylanRoth, JonesOverMahomes and LIGUY. Great work! |
| Latest Update: The picks have been loaded to the website |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:18 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 75 This represents 95.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 12 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Important
Notes: There are three games on Thanksgiving this
week and one game the next day on Black Friday, before the other 12 games on
Sunday and Monday night. Make sure to get your picks in early if you want to
choose one of those games. Also note: This is the first week of the secondary "last seven weeks" pool. So if you are far behind in the main pool, this is your chance to get back in the pool competition. |
| Week 11 Final |
| Pool record for week 11 |
| This week: 183 - 200 Best Bets: 41 - 34 |
| Percentage: .478 Best Bet Percentage: .547 |
| Season: 2214 - 2023 Best Bets: 449 - 384 |
| Percentage: .523 Best Bet Percentage: .539 |
| Recap: Below .500 week of picking for the pool in overall picks and slightly above .500 in Best Bets as you can see above. At the top of the pool, Frager took the lead with 46 points. Tied for second with 45 are BilligG and Wolfmen. BocciaNick is right behind with 44. Congratulations to HouseSchreibatheon who got a perfect week this week. This puts him squarely in contention with 43 points. Tied with him at 43 is SeattleSlew64. There are several others trailing closely behind with 39 or more points. As you can see it is very tight at the top of the pool and there are lots of contenders with legitimate shots at winning. Usually the winner of the pool averages between 4.25 and 4.5 points per week, so the scores this year are a tad lower than that at 4.18 points per week. This might explain why the top of the pool is so crowded this year. |
| Interesting results in Broncos - 2.5 v. Vikings |
| Broncos were down by 5 and scored a late TD to go ahead by 1. They went for the 2 point conversion which would have given them a 3 point lead and the cover. They missed the 2 point conversion which gave the Viings the cover, losing by 1 with those 2.5 points. |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:18 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 77 This represents 97.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 11 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 10 Final |
| Pool record for week 10 |
| This week: 194 - 183 Best Bets: 41 - 32 |
| Percentage: .515 Best Bet Percentage: .562 |
| Season: 2031 - 1823 Best Bets: 408 - 350 |
| Percentage: .527 Best Bet Percentage: .538 |
| Recap:
There were some changes at the top after a solid
week of picking by the pool. BocciaNick, who had been in first place since week 1 of the pool got
only 2 points this week and dropped down to 3rd place. Meanwhile, Frager and Wolfmen each got 4 points
this week and moved into a 1st place tie with 43 points each. BocciaNick is only one
point behind with 42. BilligG also got 4 points this week and is right behind with 40.
Congratulations to RaphaelR and TeamFeldman who each got perfect weeks this week. RaphaelR is definitely in
contention with 38 points and TeamFeldman is not far off the pace with 34. In our pool this week, the 49ers-Jaguars matchup was a real swing game. We had 22 players take the 49ers and 16 who took the Jaguars. 49ers had lost 3 in a row and Jaguars were on a hot streak. The spread was 49ers - 3.5 which seemed like a lot for a team on a losing streak. No doubt, that's why so many in our pool took the points and the Jags. Of course, 49ers won big 34-3. |
| Interesting games of the weekend |
| Steelers
- 3.5 v Packers Kind of a sloppy, boring game, but it came down to the final few plays, as it often does in the NFL. Packers were trailing 23-19 when they got the ball back for one final drive with 59 seconds left in the game. QB Jordan Love hit a 46 yard pass to get to the PIT 35. They moved the ball a little further downfield and had 1st and 10 from the 16 yard line with 4 seconds left and time for one more play. The GB coach inexplicably went for the TD to try to win the game. The pass was intercepted and the Steelers got the win and the cover. GB should have kicked a chippy FG there, to make the score 20-19, which still would have given the game to the Steelers, but would have given the Packers the win in the Sportsbooks in Vegas, where it really counts. |
| Commanders
+ 6.5 vs. Seahawks. Exciting game, with teams trading 4th qtr TDs, Commanders scoring with 52 seconds left to tie the game. Seahawks get the ball back and hit on a few big pass plays to move the ball down to the +25 with 3 seconds left in the game. They line up to kick the winning FG with time running out and make it to win the game. But that FG just won the game for Seahawks on the scoreboard, something nobody cares about. They were at the 25, close enough to try to throw a TD which, with the point after would have given them a 7 point lead and the cover of the 6 1/2 they were laying. Bad decision by the coach to go for the FG - who cares who wins the game? |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:17 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 76 This represents 96.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 10 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 9 Final |
| Pool record for week 9 |
| This week: 225 - 152 Best Bets: 57 - 16 |
| Percentage: .597 Best Bet Percentage: .781 |
| Season: 1837 - 1640 Best Bets: 367 - 318 |
| Percentage: .528 Best Bet Percentage: .536 |
| Recap:
Wow, what an amazing week of picking by our pool.
Nearly 60% success rate on overall picks, but an amazing .781 on best bets as
you can see in the statistics above. The most popular team to pick as best
bet was the browns who were playing the cardinals. This seemed like a good
pick for the alert handicappers: Deshaun Watson was returning for the Browns
as QB and the Cardinals seemed to throw in the towel on the season by trading
their starting QB Dobson to the Vikings. Another way to look at the picks -
the favorites went 10-4 this weekend but our pool picked only 209 favorites
compared to 170 underdogs, a lower percentage of favorites than usual.
However, the pool was accurate in heavily picking two underdogs that covered.
In the bucs-texans game, we had 22 picks on the underdog bucs and only 4 on
the favored texans. In the commanders-patriots game, we had 20 picks on the
underdog commanders and 7 on the homestading favored patriots. In both these
games, the underdogs covered - commanders winning outright and bucs losing by
2 and covering with the 3 1/2 they were getting. Further indication of the interesting week of picking - we had 7 perfect weeks, they were: JonahR, Zisholtz, HouseSchreibatheon, TeamAmsel, SmigelBros, matzcake and evodad. I never recall having this many perfectos in one week. In addition, there were several people who missed a perfect week by the slimmest of margins. |
| Standings: At the top of the pool, leader BocciaNick remains in first with 40 points. Tied for second with 39 points are Frager and Wolfmen. Right behind are TeamZwick with 37 and BilligG with 36. |
| Interesting
Games of the weekend Eagles - 3 1/2 v. Cowboys: This was an exciting game with the lead changing several times. The Eagles scored 2 third quarter TDs to take a 28-17 lead entering Q4. But the Cowboys were not waving the white flag - they scored a TD with 6:30 left in the game and smartly went for the 2 point conversion. That would have made the score 28-25 and would have given the Cowboys the cover with the 3 1/2 they were getting. Initial call by the refs had QB Prescott scoring, but a review indicated that he was stopped short. McCarthy showed smarts going for the 2 point conversion to try to get the cover, even though it failed. The game was far from over - Cowboys stopped the Eagles on a 3-and-out and got the ball back with 4:52 left. They moved down to the 29 and had a 4th and 8 with 1:22 left. While McCarthy showed smarts by going for the 2 point conversion earlier, he showed incredible stupidity by going for it on 4th and 8 instead of going for the FG. That would have made the score 28-26 and would have given the Cowboys the cover. McCarthy thought that it was important to try to win the game on the scoreboard instead of in the sportsbooks in Vegas. The 4th down attempt failed, which seemed like it closed the door to the Cowboys. But they stopped the Eagles on another 3-and-out and got the ball back with 46 seconds left deep in their own territory, on their own 14. Eagles got several penalties called on them - pass interference, roughing the passer and encroachment. This had the effect of moving the ball downfield ( 56 yards in penalties) and stopping the clock. Cowboys then had a 3rd down on the Eagles 22 yard line with 5 seconds left, what would surely be the last play of the game. Eagles lined up 8 defenders on the goal line, making scoring a TD a very low probability. Once again, McCarthy spit the bit and tried to score a TD to win the game. Instead he should have kicked the FG to get the cover. Once again he was secuced into trying to win the game on the scoreboard instead of getting the cover, which is all that we care about. |
| In our pool, AlexJosh and Wolfmen would have gotten a perfect week if the Cowboys had covered. Wolfmen would be leading the pool if he had gotten that perfect week. |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 14:48 EST, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 76 This represents 96.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 9 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 8 Final |
| Pool record for week 8 |
| This week: 231 - 152 Best Bets: 48 - 27 |
| Percentage: .603 Best Bet Percentage: .640 |
| Season: 1612 - 1488 Best Bets: 310 - 302 |
| Percentage: .520 Best Bet Percentage: .507 |
| Recap: After last week's poor scores, the pool bounced back with a very strong week of handicapping as you can see from the statistics above. Overall picks hit at a .603 percentage and best bets was a sizzling .640 success rate. BilligG, champion of last two years got a perfect week this week and is now in serious contention. BocciaNick retains his first place lead with 37 points. In second place is Frager with 35 points. Tied for third with 34 points are TeamZwick and Wolfmen. Note that the first tiebreaker is total correct picks. Wolfmen has 26 and TeamZwick has 24, so right now, Wolfmen is in third place. Of course, there's more than half a season to go, so the scores will surely change. Right behind on the strength of his perfect week is BilligG with 32. |
| Interesting games of the weekend |
| Bucs
+ 8 1/2 v. Bills Is there any doubt that someone on the Bills coaching staff or defensive unit had a bet against his own team and wanted to shave points but still have Bills win the game on the socreboard? Look at the evidence: Bills were up 14 and their defense was completely holding down Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense. They could get nothing going. Then Bucs got the ball back with 10:05 left in the 4th qtr. Bills gave up one first down when Bucs had 1st and 20 after a holding call. They gave up another first down on 3rd and 9 with a defensive holding call. They gave up the next first down on a facemask penalty on 3rd down nullifying a sack on the play. Then finally Bucs actually made a play and advance the ball on their own rather than relying on another Bills penalty.... Mayfield hit Evans on a 24 yard TD pass. Bills even gave up a 2pt conversion making it a 6 point game. Buffalo may have overplayed their hand and almost lost the game when a Hail Mary on the last play of the game had a chance but fell incomplete. Bills were leading by 14, won by 6 and failed to cover the spread. This was a great result all the way around - they won on the scoreboard and managed to give the game to the Bucs on the Vegas sportsbooks, winning the bet for the point shaver on the team. |
| Jets
- 2 1/2 v. Giants As a Giants fan this game is too painful to review, but I'll do it anyway. The point spread in our pool was Giants + 2 1/2 but after I posted our spread, all the sportsbooks moved it up to 3 1/2. Once I post the line, I don't change it; it's still a level playing field. If Gano kicks the chippy FG, Jets have no chace to cover. Even if they come down and score a TD, they win by 1. But they kick the FG to tie and then one more in OT to win by 3, covering the 2 1/2 which would have been a loser on all other sportsbooks. |
| Cardinals
+8 1/2 v. Ravens. Ravens are rolling, ahead comfortably 31-15 after scoring a TD with 2:56 left in Q4. But Cardinals are a resourceful bunch; they score a TD on a possession of only 1:37, miss the 2 point conversion making the score 31-21. Neverthelss, this was a brilliant move by the coach to go for 2 pt conversion there, because that would have made the score 31-23, an 8 point lead that would give the Cards the cover with the 8 1/2 they were getting. But they're not done - they recover the onside kick (successful less that 5% of the time) and move down to kick a FG with 29 seconds left, making the final score 31-24 and giving them the dreaded back door cover. In our pool, only 4 brave souls took the underdog Cards, while 19 went with the chalk and took the heavily favored Ravens. The wise handicappers who took the Cardinals were: Apple, GreenbergMatt, RaphaelR and WavyBauer |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 17:09 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 77 This represents 97.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 8 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 7 Final |
| Pool record for week 7 |
| This week: 141 - 242 Best Bets: 23 - 52 |
| Percentage: .368 Best Bet Percentage: .307 |
| Season: 1381 - 1336 Best Bets: 262 - 275 |
| Percentage: .508 Best Bet Percentage: .488 |
| Week 7 Final Results: It's always interesting to note how difficult it is to do this handicapping; picking winners in the NFL is hard. The last several weeks the pool has done very well, but this week, as you can see in the statistics above, the pool did not have good results. In the overall winning percentage and the best bet percentage, the pool had .368 and .307 respectively. You can also see this in the distribution of scores (Standings and Statstics-> Tendencies). On that page, you will see that we had 17 players with 0 points and 19 with only 1 point. On the other side, we did have one player with a perfect week and six that had 5 points.Congratulations to SeattleSlew64 who was the one player that got a perfect week in week 7. It pushed him up from 20 to 28 and he is defintiely in contention now. Last week's leader BocciaNick, got 5 points this week, missing only on the saints and retains his lead with 33 points. Following leader BocciaNick, tied with 31 points are Frager, TeamZwick and Wolfmen. As mentioned above SeattleSlew64 is right behind with 28 points. |
| Distribution of Picks: It's really interesting to see how the picks were distributed and you can understand from that why the scores this week were so low. Our pool, like so much of wagering America, tends to pick favorites more frequently than underdogs. The tilt towards favorites this week was a little higher than usual: the pool picked 243 favorites and 142 underdogs. However, favorites went 4-9 this week. On top of that, the pool absolutely loved one underdog - the Lions getting 3 1/2 v. Ravens. We had 40 players picking the Lions, while only 11 took the favored Ravens. In the game, Ravens crushed the Lions 38-6 and easily covered the 3 1/2. Lions were the most frequently picked team in our pool. Other games that were big losers in our pool were the Browns, Buccaneers and Rams who were taken 33, 29 and 28 times in our pool. All were favorites and none covered the point spread. Of those teams, the Browns were the only favorite that won the game but failed to cover because of the point spread. The other teams, Buccaneers and Rams were favorites that lost outright. While we are analyzing those biggest losing picks, we should give props to the 4 great picks in the pool. Specifically, on the other side of the 29 that picked the Buccaneers, we had only 4 guys to pick the Falcons an underdog that won outright: BocciaNick, Kosowsky, MaxDop and NYG were perspicacious in this pick. |
| Interesting
games of the week: Patriots + 8 1/2 v. Bills: Everybody is going crazy over the Patriot's upset win over the visiting Bills. Bellichick won his 300th game as coach, final drive scoring a TD with 12 seconds left, Mac Jones coming out of the Bellichick QB doghouse, etc. I don't really get all the fuss. Whether or not Jones throws that TD pass to win the game on the scoreboard, the Patriots were going to cover the spread with the 8 1/2 points they were so generously getting from the Bills. So who really cares who wins on the scoreboard? Browns -2 1/2 v. Colts: It was an exciting back and forth game with the Colts scoring a TD with 5:50 left in the game to take the lead 38-33. Browns were not done, they scored a TD with 19 seconds left in the game, the 6 points putting them up 39-38. Browns HC Stefanski had the wisdom to go for a 2 point conversion because taking the 1 PAT would only give them a 2 point lead and would not cover the spread. So Stefanski wisely went for the 2 which would have given them a 3 point lead and the cover, had it been successful. Ultimately the 2 point attempt failed, but at least it showed that Stefanski knew how important the point spreads are. |
| Latest Update: As of Monday morning at 01:09 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 77 This represents 97.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 7 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Look ahead to week 7 games: Interesting point spreads in the slate of games this week. We have 6 teams with byes, which means that there are only 13 games on the schedule instead of the 16 games that would be sheduled if all 32 teams were playing. Here's the interesting part: of those 13 games, 6 visiting teams are favored. Gotta love those home-dogs! . |
| Week 6 Final |
| Pool record for week 6 |
| This week: 210 - 173 Best Bets: 32 - 43 |
| Percentage: .548 Best Bet Percentage: .427 |
| Season: 1240 - 1094 Best Bets: 239 - 223 |
| Percentage: .531 Best Bet Percentage: .517 |
| Recap:
Week 6 showed a strong performance in the overall
picks, but was well below .500 in best bets, as you can see in the statistics
above. If you look at the Tendencies tab on the Standings and Staistics page,
you'll see why. The pool loved the 49ers, who were favored by more than a TD,
7 1/2 over the Browns. In our pool, 52 picked the 49ers , 31 of those as best
bets. Browns didn't need the 7 1/2 points; they won the game outright; SF's
first loss of the year. We had 4 perfect weeks this week: BergerStu, Dracarys, KretBros, Wolfmen. These perfect weeks did not change the standings at the very top, but it certainly tightened things up. The three leaders coming into the week were BocciaNick, TeamZwick and Frager. This week, BocciaNick got 2 points and TeamZwick, who had been trailing by 1 coming into the week got 3 points and now is tied with BocciaNick for first place, both with 28 points. In third place is Frager, who got 2 points this week and is 1 point behind with 27. The two perfect weeks by BergerStu and Wolfmen brought them closer - Wolfmen now has 26 points and is tied with MestelGabyDan, for fourth place. BergerStu is also in contention, only a few points behind now with 24 points. |
| Brilliant
Picks of the weeked Every so often, we have a wise, aggressive handicapper in our pool that is able to go against the grain and pick a winner that is unlikely to win. We had such an occurrence this weekend. 49ers were favored by 7 1/2 over the Browns, even though the game was being played in Cleveland (gotta love those home dogs). 49ers were undefeated coming into the weekend and while it's true that they missed a 41 yard FG with 6 seconds left that would have given them the game, those 3 points still would not have given them the cover of the 7 1/2 which is all anybody really cares about. In our pool, we had 52 people jump on the 49ers bandwagon, 31 as best bets. Only 2 people, the perspicacious, all-seeing experts HenryA and NYGiants1960 were bold enough to pick the Browns. Great job!! HenryA got 4 points this weekend and now has 14. NYGiants1960 also got 4 points and now has 17. |
| Interesting
Games of the weekend: Chiefs - 10 1/2 v. Broncos Great work by coach Andy Reid, who gets it…. His Chiefs were leading 16-0 coasting to cover the 10 1/2 they were laying to the visiting Broncos. But Denver socred a TD + 2 point conversion with around 6 minutes left in the game. Instead of playing it safe and killing the clock, Reid had the Chiefs drive down for a FG with 2 minutes left, giving them a two score lead in the game and more importantly of course, the cover of the 10 1/2 they were giving. Raiders - 3 1/2 v. Patriots Patriots were down all game and trailed 19-10 after the Raiders kicked a FG early in the 4th quarter. But Patriots came back and scored a TD with 3:36 left in the game, making the score 19-17 and giving them the all important cover with the 3 1/2 they were getting. That should have been enough for Bellichick, but they got the ball back with 2:23 left on their own 9 yard line. He should have killed the clock politely but he has this weird pre-modern idea that winning the game on the scoreboard actually matters. His Patriots gained a few yards on 1st down but were pushed back to their own 4 because of two penalties (holding, false start). From the 4, QB Jones got sacked in the end zone for a safety making the score 21-17 and snatching the cover away from NE. Raiders then won by 4 and got the win on the scoreboard and in Vegas. What was Bellichick thinking??? I thought he was supposed to be some kind of great coach. Once his Patriots got the cover with the late TD, he should have been content to win the game in Vegas with those 3 1/2 he was getting. Instead he put the cover in harms way by doing something stupid like trying to win the game on the scoreboard and it came back to haunt him. Sheesh. Some genius. |
| Latest Update: As of Monday morning at 11:27 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 77 This represents 97.0% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 6 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 5 Final |
| Pool record for week 5 |
| This week: 209 - 174 Best Bets: 40 - 35 |
| Percentage: .546 Best Bet Percentage: .533 |
| Season: 1030 - 921 Best Bets: 207 - 180 |
| Percentage: .528 Best Bet Percentage: .535 |
| Recap:
Good week of picking for the pool as both best bets
and overall picks were over 50%. Congratulations to Frager, HouseSchreibatheon, TeamZwick and TeigmanJ who all got
perfect weeks. Particularly impressive was Frager, who got his
second perfect week in a row. That's Johnny Vander Meer territory, who is the
only pitcher in major league baseball history to throw two consecutive
no-hitters. The standings have shifted because of these perfect weeks. BocciaNick got only 1 point this week, and still leads with 26 points. Right behind, tied for second place with 25 points are two of the guys with perfect weeks this week: Frager and TeamZwick. Trailing close behind are MestelGabyDan and RaphaelR with 23 and 22 points respectively. |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday night at 22:28 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 77 This represents 97% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 5 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 4 Final |
| Pool record for week 4 |
| This week: 203 - 186 Best Bets: 37 - 40 |
| Percentage: .522 Best Bet Percentage: .481 |
| Season: 821 - 747 Best Bets: 167 - 145 |
| Percentage: .524 Best Bet Percentage: .535 |
| Recap: Interesting week of picking for the pool as the overall
winning percentage on all picks exceeded the winning percentage on best bets.
Perhaps equally interesting was the distribution of the points scored - it
almost looks like a normal distribution with tails at both ends. By that I
mean, we had an amazing number - five people to be exact - that got perfect
weeks and nine others that got 5 points. On the flip side, we had six people
with 0 points and six with 1 point. It is true that one of the players who
got 0 points was someone who didn't submit his picks in time, but that
doesn't change the shape of the "Bell Curve". The five perfect weeks were from: BocciaNick, RaphaelR, Frager, Kosowsky and ClappJ. The standings are: BocciaNick, who has been in first place since week 1 extended his lead with that perfect week and now has 25 points. Next is RaphaelR, who used his perfect week to jump into second place with 19 points. In third place is MestelGabyDan with 18 points. Frager, Kosowsky and TeamZwick are right behind, tied with 17. |
| Picks
of the week: Best picks of the week go to the 6 guys
who took the commanders over the eagles and the 7 who took the jets over the
chiefs. Both underdogs beat the spread, but lost the game. In the
Eagles-Commanders game 25 guys took the favorite Eagles and in the Chiefs-Jets
game, 22 took the Chiefs. Game of the week: Jets + 9 1/2 v. Chiefs. Chiefs are leading by 3 and are trying to close out the game with a 4th quarter ending drive. They get a break on a very questionable Pass Interference call against Sauce Gardner to keep the drive alive. Later in the possession they are facing a 3rd and long. All World QB Mahomes runs out of the pocket and has the first down, but decides to slide at the 1 yard line and let the clock run out, since the Jets had no time outs left. What a dope! I watched the Quarterback series on NetFlix, I thought Mahomes was supposed to be a cerebral quarterback , some kind of savant with a brilliant football IQ. Apparently, however, he doesn't know that 3+7=10 and that 10>9 1/2. Instead of sliding down at the 1, he should have run into the endzone and given his team the cover of the 9 1/2 they were laying to the Jets. Some genius! |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday night at 22:21 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 78 This represents 99% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 4 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Lookback
to Week 3 Picks: Occasionally it's fun to analyze
the picks - not the games, but the actual distribution of the picks and the
setting of the point spreads. For example, in last week's games, one could
say that the worst picks of the season, and perhaps the worst picks in
handicapping history were the eight brave souls in our pool who took the
underdog Broncos against the high flying Dolphins. The Dolphins had come off
two solid wins, having scored 36 and 24 points in their first two games, both
on the road. Now they were in their home opener in Miami's Hard Rock Stadium
against a Denver team that was 0-2, having lost both games at home and were
now playing their road-opener. They are heading east for a 1PM game,
situations where west coast teams have historically not done well. Granted
that Denver is in the Mountain Time Zone, not Western, but still - they start
the game at a time that their body thinks is 11AM. You know - circadian
rhythms and all that stuff. With all that, Denver is the underdog getting 6
1/2 points. But they would have need 50 1/2 points to cover the 70-20
shellacking that they took. And - Miami could have scored more - they sat on
the ball at the end of the game and mercifully let the clock run out.
Sometimes when there's a blowout, there are a few defensive scores or a kick
return that inflates the score and makes it look worse than it actually was.
Not here - Miami amassed 726 yards of
offense, 350 running and 376 passing. Suffice it to say that Denver's defense
did not play well. In our pool, we had 26 guys take the Dolphins and 8 take
the Broncos, 3 of those 8 were best bets. Looking forward, however to week 4 games - what does it say about the state of the Bears when we see that Denver in a 3 1/2 point favorite against Da' Bears ..... IN CHICAGO !!!! Good luck in the pool ! |
| Week 3 Final |
| Pool record for week 3 |
| This week: 213 - 176 Best Bets: 47 - 30 |
| Percentage: .548 Best Bet Percentage: .610 |
| Season: 618 - 561 Best Bets: 130 - 105 |
| Percentage: .524 Best Bet Percentage: .553 |
| Recap:
An amazing week of handicapping for the pool as you
can see from the impressive scores above. To quote Samuel L. Jackson from one
of my favorite movies, Pulp Fiction: "Check out the big brain on
Brad!". The .627 winning percentage on best bets is a very strong
result. There were 7 teams that were picked 5 or more times as best bets and
6 of those 7 came in as winners. |
| Mea
Culpa: As
reported in an email I sent earlier today (Tuesday 26 Sep, 11:49AM) I made an
error in my system where I switched the scores for the two LA Teams. This has
now been repaired and the results reported in these comments and on the
website are now correct. Although this same error extended back to the first
week of the year, fortunately it did not make a difference in which teams
won/covered the spreads. The only error was in week 3. The new standings and
recap follow Standings: We had two perfect weeks, MestelGabyDan and Konovitch. I reported previously before discovering and correcting the error in the scroes that WeinerD got a perfect week. He did not. However, the perfect week for MestelGabyDan pushed him into the thick of contention. Leading the pack is still BocciaNick with 17 points. MestelGabyDan is second with 15 and we have four tied for third place with 14 points: AlexJosh, BilligG, JonahR and Zisholtz. |
| Interesting game of the week |
| Patriots - 3 1/2 v Jets |
| Is there any doubt that Jets QB Zach Wilson had a bet on the game, against his own team? Here's the proof. The Jets had the spread covered when they scored with 5:24 left in the game, trailing by only 3 and getting 3 1/2. When the Jets got the ball back with a chance to win the game, Wilson realized that he might lose his bet against his own team and got tackled in his own endzone for a safety, the 2 points giving the Patriots the cover and Wilson won his bet against his own team. |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:25 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 77 This represents 97% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 3 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| Week 2 Final |
| Pool record for week 2 |
| This week: 194 - 201 Best Bets: 35 - 44 |
| Percentage: .491 Best Bet Percentage: .443 |
| Season: 405 - 385 Best Bets: 83 - 75 |
| Percentage: .513 Best Bet Percentage: .525 |
| Week 2 Recap: We had an interesting set of results this weekend for the pool, as the overall pool percentage picking winners exceeded our best bet percentage. I think this is called ironic. We analyze, evaluate, estimate and consult handicapping experts to come up with the one pick that we are sure will come home and we make it our best bet. Then, the other 4 picks we kind of throw together haphazardly just to fill out the pick list, and of course our success rate there exceeds our results on the best bets. |
| Standings: We had one perfect week, as former winner AaronA bounced back from his 1 point in week 1 and now has 9 with that perfect week. BocciaNick, who got a perfect week in week 1, followed it up with a near perfect slate this week, missing only on the home dog Patriots and compiling 5 points for a total of 13. In second place are BilligG and JonahR tied with 12 points. Right behind, tied with 10 points are AlexJosh, MannisRuss and Wolfmen. Bad luck for AlexJosh and MannisRuss who both missed their perfect week by a slim 1/2 point. MannisRuss lost on the 49ers and AlexJosh lost with the Saints. Both games were excruciating losses (see below). |
| Interesting games of the weekend |
| vikings + 6 1/2 v. EAGLES |
| So, do you think those meaningless garbage time TDs are actually meaningless? I don't think so - consider the Thursday night game between the Vikings and the Iggles. Vikings are trailing in the second half and score a TD with 7:47 left in the 4th quarter to make the score close, now trailing 27-21. Eagles answer right back moving the ball down the field and scoring a TD with 4:13 left to make the score 34-21. Slim chance for Minnesota to win the game; they would need to hit a big play, score with more than 2:00 minutes remaining to be able to use the 2:00 minute warning and their timeouts to manage the clock and move the ball downfield. But of course, they're not interested in winning the game, they're interested only in covering the very generous 6 ½ point spread that Iggles so graciously afforded them. So, they moved methodically down the field using 13 plays and more than 3:00 off the clock to score a TD making the score 34-28. They don't have a play greater than 20 yards in their drive. The Vikings then went through the motions of trying to win the game on the scoreboard by trying an onside kick, but Eagles recover with 1:10 left. Philly runs the ball killing the clock and punt it back to the Vikings with :07 left on the clock. The Vikings did a good job covering the spread and sending out signals, giving the impression that they were trying to win on the scoreboard. Nobody believes that. |
| RAMS +8 1/2 v 49ers |
| If the Vikings were trying to mask the fact that they didn't care about winning the game, only about covering the spread, the Rams had no compunctions about it and blatantly considered only the point spread in their game against the 49ers. It was a hotly contested game, with the score tied at 17 at half time. The visiting 49ers then forced some turnovers in the second half and were leading 30-20 when the Rams got the ball back with 1:34 left in the game. They were getting 7 ½ points in most sportsbooks (in our pool the spread was 8 ½) and while they had virtually no chance to win the game on the scoreboard and in the NFL standings, they could try to cover the spread. They moved the ball downfield and got to the 49er's 20 yard line with :05 left on the clock. That's 5 seconds, not 5 minutes! Now there is absolutely no chance to win the game. Wait - it gets better! The clock is still running with those 5 little ticks left on the clock and Rams QB Stafford spikes the ball to stop the clock at 4 seconds left. This gave the Rams FG kicker a chance to come on the field, which he did, and he made the 3-point kick on the final play of the game. Of course, this made the final score 30-23, a 7 point win for the 49ers. No one watching the close of this game could harbor even the faintest illusion that the Rams actions were about anything but covering the point spread. |
| PANTHERS + 3 1/2 v. saints |
| Saints on top 20-9 with 3:14 left, clinging to the lead and looking like they will cover the 3 ½ points they are laying to the homestanding Panthers. Panthers have little chance of winning on the scoreboard, but they can give their hometown fans something to cheer about. Panthers score a TD with 1:21 left in the game and convert the 2-point conversion to make the final score 20-17, giving their fans some joy and taking away a win in Vegas for the Saints on the dreaded backdoor cover. |
| The week 2 picks have been posted to the website |
| Latest Update: As of Friday night at 18:37 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 51 This represents 64% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 2 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks |
| IMPORTANT NOTE FOR WEEK 2: There is a Jewish Holiday this weekend beginning on Friday evening and ending on Sunday night. Consequently, I will not be able to post everyone's picks on Sunday shortly after 1 PM as I usually do. Instead they will be published to the website after the conclusion of the holiday Sunday night, sometime after 8:30 or so. Be extra careful submitting valid picks this weekend, because my system will not check them in advance of the 1PM deadline. Your picks will be saved, until I process them Sunday evening. Of course, others who also observe the holiday, make sure to get your picks in before the holiday begins on Friday evening. And, for all who observe the holiday - wishing you a happy and healthy new year. |
| (NOTE: Same procedure will be followed for weeks 4 and 5) |
| Week 1 Final |
| Pool record for week 1 |
| This week: 211 - 184 Best Bets: 48 - 31 |
| Percentage: .534 Best Bet Percentage: .608 |
| Season: 211 - 184 Best Bets: 48 - 31 |
| Percentage: .534 Best Bet Percentage: .608 |
| Weekly Recap: The pool got off to a blazing hot start as you can see from the scores above. Overall the pool had a .533 winning percentage with an even more impressive .615 on Best Bets. The most frequently picked teams were the 49ers and the Jaguars. |
| Standings: With such a hot start, it's not surprising that we had some perfect weeks. Specifically, we had 4 participants who had perfect weeks: BilligG, BocciaNick, JonahR and TeamZwick all hit a perfect week. Right behind them are 13 guys who missed just one game and got 5 points. If you are not one of those 17 leading the pool, don't be dispirited; there's plenty of time to catch up. Remember, the NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint. |
| Important Announcement: I must apologize to everyone in the pool. I made a huge mistake in posting the point spreads before week 1. In the much anticipated Sunday night opener between the Dallas Cowboys (booooo) and the homestanding NY Giants, I mistakenly put down that the Cowboys were favored by 3 ½ points. Actually, they were favored by 39 ½ points. Fortunately, it did not make a difference in the results – Cowboys won by 40 and covered the spread. As old local NY sports reporter Warner Wolf used to say: “If you had the Giants plus 39 1/2, you lost!!!” |
| Interesting Game of the weekend |
| Commanders - 7 1/2 v. Cardinals |
| A very interesting game unfolded. What was Commander’s coach Ron Rivera thinking? Commanders were giving 7 ½ at home against the QB-less Cardinals. Commanders are leading by a slim point 17-16 when they recover a Cardinals fumble deep in their opponent’s territory at the 22 yard line in the 4th quarter. Perfect time to close the deal, score a TD and walk away with the win and the cover of the 7 ½. Instead on 4th and 3 from the 15, Commanders settle for a FG and only a 4 point lead which does no one any good. Commanders fans who put their hard earned money down on their team are still walking away losers. But wait! There’s more, it gets worse. Cardinals take the kickoff and with 1:15 left go for it on 4th down from their own 37. Washington’s defense stops them, so Commanders are in prime position to get a TD and the cover. Instead Rivera runs the ball 3 times, killing the clock and punts from the Arizona 36 ?!? Washington wins but this is Riverboat Ron, the gambling coach. What is he thinking??? Good coaches win, great coaches cover. |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:17 , all picks received have been published to the website. Number of picks that have been published: 79 This represents 94% of the pool |
| Week 1 Advisory: First week there may be some setup issues, please check that your picks are correct |
| Latest Update: As of Sunday afternoon at 13:16 EDT, the number of picks that have been submitted is: 79 This represents 94% of the pool |
| Point Spreads Loaded: The point spreads for week 1 have been loaded onto the web site. You may begin entering your picks. |
| Week 1 Preparation |
| NOTE: The Thursday night season opener is INCLUDED in week 1 picking |
| Opening remarks: We are still nailing down who's in and who's out for the 2023 season. When you enter a PIN/PASSWORD for your first entry, I will save it in my system and you will use that PWD to verify each submission during the course of the season. |
| Remember: all submissions are time stamped, so we can verify that they have been submitted in time. |
| Remember also: if you made an error on a pick, or just changed your mind on one of your picks, you can submit a new set of picks again. In fact, you can submit as many entries as you'd like and the last one submitted will be used. All five teams must be filled out on each submitted entry. Of course, you have to submit picks before 1PM Sunday or before the start of the Thursday game if you are picking a team in TNF. |
| After you click submit, the system automatically sends a copy of your picks back to you at the email address that you provide on the form. But it takes a few minutes for that to happen, it is not instantaneous, so please be patient and don't reclick submit 10 or 15 times. (Nothing bad will happen if you do, but it is a little annoying on my end to make sure that the correct picks were used.) Also note that your picks will be sent to the email address you enter on the form. Occasionally someone makes an error typing in the email address and the return email containing the picks gets lost. |
| Let the Games BEGIN !! |